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PROBORA

Market record

DOGE Up or Down · 5 Min

04:00 → 04:05 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled04:00 → 04:05 UTC

Market ID doge-5m-20261115-0400

Settled

Nov 15, 04:05:00 UTC

Price to beat

$0.05882
Index at 04:00:00

Final index

$0.05864

Settlement price

$0.05864
Index at 04:05:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
0.058610.058720.0589504:0004:0104:0204:0304:05PTB 0.05882

Settlement $0.05864

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN62.4%High
UP 37.6%62.4% DOWN
Historical accuracy
44.8%
29 markets
Model version
meta-doge5-v1
published 04:00:11 UTC

Base consensus

7 / 9 DOWN

77.8% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 04:00:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN55.7%
UP 44.3%55.7% DOWN
Medium48.3%29 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN55.1%
UP 44.9%55.1% DOWN
Medium51.7%29 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN55.1%
UP 44.9%55.1% DOWN
Medium62.1%29 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN54.2%
UP 45.8%54.2% DOWN
Medium44.8%29 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentUP50.8%
UP 50.8%49.2% DOWN
Low37.9%29 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentDOWN56.3%
UP 43.7%56.3% DOWN
Medium51.7%29 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentUP50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low48.3%29 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low44.8%29 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentDOWN50.5%
UP 49.5%50.5% DOWN
Low34.5%29 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for DOGE: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 04:00:00 UTC

04:00:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps0.05882ok
  • Coinbase+3.7 bps0.05884ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.8 bps0.05881ok
Median of 3 sources$0.05882

Settlement · 04:05:00 UTC

04:05:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+3.8 bps0.05866ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps0.05864ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.5 bps0.05864ok
Median of 3 sources$0.05864

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min DOGE windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
03:55 → 04:00Nov 150.058710.05882UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN62.3%LOSS
03:50 → 03:55Nov 150.058770.05871DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN66.8%WIN
03:45 → 03:50Nov 150.059050.05877DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.8%WIN
03:40 → 03:45Nov 150.058860.05905UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.5%LOSS
03:35 → 03:40Nov 150.058720.05886UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.4%LOSS
03:30 → 03:35Nov 150.058800.05872DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.2%WIN
03:25 → 03:30Nov 150.058930.05880DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.5%WIN
03:20 → 03:25Nov 150.059020.05893DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.5%WIN
03:15 → 03:20Nov 150.058930.05902UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.3%LOSS
03:10 → 03:15Nov 150.058850.05893UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.7%LOSS
03:05 → 03:10Nov 150.058850.05885FLAT6 / 9 DOWNUP50.5%PUSH
03:00 → 03:05Nov 150.058560.05885UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.2%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on DOGE · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · DOGE 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Mean Reversion Agent62.1%29 mkts
  2. 2Momentum Agent51.7%29 mkts
  3. 3Liquidation Agent48.3%29 mkts
  4. 4Volatility Agent51.7%29 mkts
  5. 5OI/Funding Agent44.8%29 mkts
  6. 6Meta Agent44.8%29 mkts

About this market

Dogecoin · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology