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PROBORA

Market record

DOGE Up or Down · 5 Min

03:40 → 03:45 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled03:40 → 03:45 UTC

Market ID doge-5m-20261115-0340

Settled

Nov 15, 03:45:00 UTC

Price to beat

$0.05886
Index at 03:40:00

Final index

$0.05905

Settlement price

$0.05905
Index at 03:45:00

Outcome

UP
Immutable record
0.058820.058900.058970.0590503:4003:4103:4203:4303:45PTB 0.05886

Settlement $0.05905

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
DOWN54.5%Medium
UP 45.5%54.5% DOWN
Historical accuracy
37.5%
24 markets
Model version
meta-doge5-v1
published 03:40:04 UTC

Base consensus

7 / 9 DOWN

77.8% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 03:40:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN54.4%
UP 45.6%54.4% DOWN
Medium41.7%24 marketsLOSS
Momentum AgentDOWN50.2%
UP 49.8%50.2% DOWN
Medium41.7%24 marketsLOSS
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN50.8%
UP 49.2%50.8% DOWN
Medium58.3%24 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN52.2%
UP 47.8%52.2% DOWN
Medium37.5%24 marketsLOSS
Order Flow AgentDOWN50.5%
UP 49.5%50.5% DOWN
Low41.7%24 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentDOWN51.1%
UP 48.9%51.1% DOWN
Medium45.8%24 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentUP50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low54.2%24 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentUP50.1%
UP 50.1%49.9% DOWN
Low41.7%24 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentDOWN50.8%
UP 49.2%50.8% DOWN
Low41.7%24 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for DOGE: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 03:40:00 UTC

03:40:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+0.8 bps0.05887ok
  • Coinbase−0.7 bps0.05886ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps0.05886ok
Median of 3 sources$0.05886

Settlement · 03:45:00 UTC

03:45:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−1.8 bps0.05904ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps0.05905ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+0.8 bps0.05905ok
Median of 3 sources$0.05905

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min DOGE windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
03:35 → 03:40Nov 150.058720.05886UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.4%LOSS
03:30 → 03:35Nov 150.058800.05872DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.2%WIN
03:25 → 03:30Nov 150.058930.05880DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.5%WIN
03:20 → 03:25Nov 150.059020.05893DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.5%WIN
03:15 → 03:20Nov 150.058930.05902UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.3%LOSS
03:10 → 03:15Nov 150.058850.05893UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.7%LOSS
03:05 → 03:10Nov 150.058850.05885FLAT6 / 9 DOWNUP50.5%PUSH
03:00 → 03:05Nov 150.058560.05885UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.2%LOSS
02:55 → 03:00Nov 150.058460.05856UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.3%LOSS
02:50 → 02:55Nov 150.058380.05846UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.7%LOSS
02:45 → 02:50Nov 150.058390.05838DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.6%WIN
02:40 → 02:45Nov 150.058240.05839UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.0%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on DOGE · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · DOGE 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent54.2%24 mkts
  2. 2Mean Reversion Agent58.3%24 mkts
  3. 3Volatility Agent45.8%24 mkts
  4. 4OI/Funding Agent41.7%24 mkts
  5. 5Whale Flow Agent41.7%24 mkts
  6. 6Order Flow Agent41.7%24 mkts

About this market

Dogecoin · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology