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PROBORA

Market record

DOGE Up or Down · 5 Min

04:30 → 04:35 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled04:30 → 04:35 UTC

Market ID doge-5m-20261115-0430

Settled

Nov 15, 04:35:00 UTC

Price to beat

$0.05889
Index at 04:30:00

Final index

$0.05898

Settlement price

$0.05898
Index at 04:35:00

Outcome

UP
Immutable record
0.058820.058870.058920.0589704:3004:3104:3204:3304:35PTB 0.05889

Settlement $0.05898

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
DOWN51.6%Low
UP 48.4%51.6% DOWN
Historical accuracy
55.0%
40 markets
Model version
meta-doge5-v1
published 04:30:07 UTC

Base consensus

6 / 9 DOWN

66.7% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 04:30:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentUP51.0%
UP 51.0%49.0% DOWN
Medium52.5%40 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN52.2%
UP 47.8%52.2% DOWN
Medium57.5%40 marketsLOSS
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN50.6%
UP 49.4%50.6% DOWN
Medium65.0%40 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN55.3%
UP 44.7%55.3% DOWN
Medium55.0%40 marketsLOSS
Order Flow AgentDOWN50.8%
UP 49.2%50.8% DOWN
Low42.5%40 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentUP51.7%
UP 51.7%48.3% DOWN
Medium52.5%40 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentUP52.2%
UP 52.2%47.8% DOWN
Low55.0%40 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.1%
UP 49.9%50.1% DOWN
Low50.0%40 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentDOWN50.3%
UP 49.7%50.3% DOWN
Low45.0%40 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for DOGE: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 04:30:00 UTC

04:30:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.8 bps0.05888ok
  • Coinbase+0.7 bps0.05889ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps0.05889ok
Median of 3 sources$0.05889

Settlement · 04:35:00 UTC

04:35:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+2.1 bps0.05899ok
  • Coinbase——error
  • OKXUSDT→USD−2.1 bps0.05897ok
Median of 2 sources$0.05898

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min DOGE windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
04:25 → 04:30Nov 150.058740.05889UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.2%LOSS
04:20 → 04:25Nov 150.058730.05874UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.4%LOSS
04:15 → 04:20Nov 150.058850.05873DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.3%WIN
04:10 → 04:15Nov 150.058610.05885UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.5%LOSS
04:05 → 04:10Nov 150.058640.05861DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN68.3%WIN
04:00 → 04:05Nov 150.058820.05864DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN62.4%WIN
03:55 → 04:00Nov 150.058710.05882UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN62.3%LOSS
03:50 → 03:55Nov 150.058770.05871DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN66.8%WIN
03:45 → 03:50Nov 150.059050.05877DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.8%WIN
03:40 → 03:45Nov 150.058860.05905UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.5%LOSS
03:35 → 03:40Nov 150.058720.05886UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.4%LOSS
03:30 → 03:35Nov 150.058800.05872DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.2%WIN

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on DOGE · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · DOGE 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Momentum Agent57.5%40 mkts
  2. 2Mean Reversion Agent65.0%40 mkts
  3. 3Meta Agent55.0%40 mkts
  4. 4Liquidation Agent55.0%40 mkts
  5. 5OI/Funding Agent50.0%40 mkts
  6. 6Trend Agent52.5%40 mkts

About this market

Dogecoin · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology