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PROBORA

Market record

DOGE Up or Down · 5 Min

04:20 → 04:25 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled04:20 → 04:25 UTC

Market ID doge-5m-20261115-0420

Settled

Nov 15, 04:25:00 UTC

Price to beat

$0.05873
Index at 04:20:00

Final index

$0.05874

Settlement price

$0.05874
Index at 04:25:00

Outcome

UP
Immutable record
0.058700.058750.058800.0588504:2004:2104:2204:2304:25PTB 0.05873

Settlement $0.05874

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
DOWN64.4%High
UP 35.6%64.4% DOWN
Historical accuracy
51.4%
37 markets
Model version
meta-doge5-v1
published 04:20:04 UTC

Base consensus

6 / 9 DOWN

66.7% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 04:20:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN55.8%
UP 44.2%55.8% DOWN
Medium48.6%37 marketsLOSS
Momentum AgentDOWN61.4%
UP 38.6%61.4% DOWN
Medium54.1%37 marketsLOSS
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN53.0%
UP 47.0%53.0% DOWN
Medium62.2%37 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN53.1%
UP 46.9%53.1% DOWN
Medium51.4%37 marketsLOSS
Order Flow AgentUP51.0%
UP 51.0%49.0% DOWN
Low43.2%37 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentDOWN53.4%
UP 46.6%53.4% DOWN
Medium54.1%37 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentUP52.2%
UP 52.2%47.8% DOWN
Low51.4%37 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.2%
UP 49.8%50.2% DOWN
Low45.9%37 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentUP52.1%
UP 52.1%47.9% DOWN
Low43.2%37 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for DOGE: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 04:20:00 UTC

04:20:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps0.05873ok
  • Coinbase+3.2 bps0.05875ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.9 bps0.05873ok
Median of 3 sources$0.05873

Settlement · 04:25:00 UTC

04:25:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps0.05874ok
  • Coinbase+3.4 bps0.05876ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.9 bps0.05873ok
Median of 3 sources$0.05874

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min DOGE windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
04:15 → 04:20Nov 150.058850.05873DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.3%WIN
04:10 → 04:15Nov 150.058610.05885UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.5%LOSS
04:05 → 04:10Nov 150.058640.05861DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN68.3%WIN
04:00 → 04:05Nov 150.058820.05864DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN62.4%WIN
03:55 → 04:00Nov 150.058710.05882UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN62.3%LOSS
03:50 → 03:55Nov 150.058770.05871DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN66.8%WIN
03:45 → 03:50Nov 150.059050.05877DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.8%WIN
03:40 → 03:45Nov 150.058860.05905UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.5%LOSS
03:35 → 03:40Nov 150.058720.05886UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.4%LOSS
03:30 → 03:35Nov 150.058800.05872DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.2%WIN
03:25 → 03:30Nov 150.058930.05880DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.5%WIN
03:20 → 03:25Nov 150.059020.05893DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.5%WIN

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on DOGE · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · DOGE 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Mean Reversion Agent62.2%37 mkts
  2. 2Momentum Agent54.1%37 mkts
  3. 3Liquidation Agent51.4%37 mkts
  4. 4Volatility Agent54.1%37 mkts
  5. 5OI/Funding Agent45.9%37 mkts
  6. 6Meta Agent51.4%37 mkts

About this market

Dogecoin · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology