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PROBORA

Market record

DOGE Up or Down · 5 Min

11:40 → 11:45 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled11:40 → 11:45 UTC

Market ID doge-5m-20261115-1140

Settled

Nov 15, 11:45:00 UTC

Price to beat

$0.05932
Index at 11:40:00

Final index

$0.05929

Settlement price

$0.05929
Index at 11:45:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
0.059290.059350.0593811:4011:4111:4211:4311:45PTB 0.05932

Settlement $0.05929

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
UP50.5%Low
UP 50.5%49.5% DOWN
Historical accuracy
47.5%
181 markets
Model version
meta-doge5-v1
published 11:40:04 UTC

Base consensus

5 / 9 DOWN

55.6% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 11:40:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN50.8%
UP 49.2%50.8% DOWN
Medium46.4%181 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentUP51.8%
UP 51.8%48.2% DOWN
Medium47.0%181 marketsLOSS
Mean Reversion AgentUP52.1%
UP 52.1%47.9% DOWN
Medium51.4%181 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN51.8%
UP 48.2%51.8% DOWN
Medium49.7%181 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentDOWN50.7%
UP 49.3%50.7% DOWN
Low51.4%181 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentDOWN56.0%
UP 44.0%56.0% DOWN
Medium45.3%181 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentUP52.2%
UP 52.2%47.8% DOWN
Low53.6%181 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentUP50.1%
UP 50.1%49.9% DOWN
Low53.6%181 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentDOWN52.6%
UP 47.4%52.6% DOWN
Low50.3%181 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for DOGE: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 11:40:00 UTC

11:40:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+1.0 bps0.05933ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps0.05932ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−1.5 bps0.05931ok
Median of 3 sources$0.05932

Settlement · 11:45:00 UTC

11:45:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps0.05929ok
  • Coinbase+4.1 bps0.05931ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.8 bps0.05928ok
Median of 3 sources$0.05929

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min DOGE windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
11:35 → 11:40Nov 150.059180.05932UP5 / 9 UPDOWN52.1%LOSS
11:30 → 11:35Nov 150.059170.05918UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN50.4%LOSS
11:25 → 11:30Nov 150.059090.05917UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.9%LOSS
11:20 → 11:25Nov 150.059060.05909UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.1%LOSS
11:15 → 11:20Nov 150.058940.05906UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN62.7%LOSS
11:10 → 11:15Nov 150.059000.05894DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.6%WIN
11:05 → 11:10Nov 150.059080.05900DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.7%WIN
11:00 → 11:05Nov 15——VOID—Insufficient Data
10:55 → 11:00Nov 150.059130.05916UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.3%LOSS
10:50 → 10:55Nov 150.059020.05913UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.3%LOSS
10:45 → 10:50Nov 150.059110.05902DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.2%WIN
10:40 → 10:45Nov 150.059050.05911UP5 / 9 UPDOWN54.6%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on DOGE · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · DOGE 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent53.6%181 mkts
  2. 2Order Flow Agent51.4%181 mkts
  3. 3OI/Funding Agent53.6%181 mkts
  4. 4Whale Flow Agent50.3%181 mkts
  5. 5Mean Reversion Agent51.4%181 mkts
  6. 6RSI Divergence Agent49.7%181 mkts

About this market

Dogecoin · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology