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PROBORA

Market record

ETH Up or Down · 5 Min

06:30 → 06:35 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled06:30 → 06:35 UTC

Market ID eth-5m-20261115-0630

Settled

Nov 15, 06:35:00 UTC

Price to beat

$1,796.04
Index at 06:30:00

Final index

$1,793.11

Settlement price

$1,793.11
Index at 06:35:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
1,793.271,794.661,797.4306:3006:3106:3206:3306:35PTB 1,796.04

Settlement $1,793.11

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN56.2%High
UP 43.8%56.2% DOWN
Historical accuracy
47.5%
80 markets
Model version
meta-eth5-v1
published 06:30:06 UTC

Base consensus

8 / 9 DOWN

88.9% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 06:30:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN51.5%
UP 48.5%51.5% DOWN
Medium53.8%80 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN51.2%
UP 48.8%51.2% DOWN
Medium53.8%80 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN53.8%
UP 46.2%53.8% DOWN
Medium50.0%80 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN53.2%
UP 46.8%53.2% DOWN
Medium50.0%80 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentUP53.9%
UP 53.9%46.1% DOWN
Medium52.5%80 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentDOWN53.4%
UP 46.6%53.4% DOWN
Medium48.8%80 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentDOWN51.8%
UP 48.2%51.8% DOWN
Low60.0%80 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.1%
UP 49.9%50.1% DOWN
Low52.5%80 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentDOWN52.6%
UP 47.4%52.6% DOWN
Low56.3%80 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for ETH: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 06:30:00 UTC

06:30:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.1 bps1,796.03ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+0.3 bps1,796.10ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps1,796.04ok
Median of 3 sources$1,796.04

Settlement · 06:35:00 UTC

06:35:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+0.2 bps1,793.14ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps1,793.11ok
  • Coinbase−1.1 bps1,792.91ok
Median of 3 sources$1,793.11

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min ETH windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
06:25 → 06:30Nov 151,793.141,796.04UP9 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.7%LOSS
06:20 → 06:25Nov 151,794.161,793.14DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.8%WIN
06:15 → 06:20Nov 151,787.351,794.16UP5 / 9 UPUP52.7%WIN
06:10 → 06:15Nov 15——VOID—Insufficient Data
06:05 → 06:10Nov 151,790.34—VOID6 / 9 UPUP54.6%VOID
06:00 → 06:05Nov 151,799.001,790.34DOWN5 / 9 UPUP50.7%LOSS
05:55 → 06:00Nov 151,803.991,799.00DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.1%WIN
05:50 → 05:55Nov 151,805.431,803.99DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.6%WIN
05:45 → 05:50Nov 151,806.311,805.43DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.0%WIN
05:40 → 05:45Nov 151,805.001,806.31UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.6%LOSS
05:35 → 05:40Nov 151,805.951,805.00DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.2%WIN
05:30 → 05:35Nov 151,807.731,805.95DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.4%WIN

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on ETH · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · ETH 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent60.0%80 mkts
  2. 2Order Flow Agent52.5%80 mkts
  3. 3Whale Flow Agent56.3%80 mkts
  4. 4OI/Funding Agent52.5%80 mkts
  5. 5Momentum Agent53.8%80 mkts
  6. 6Trend Agent53.8%80 mkts

About this market

Ethereum · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology