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PROBORA

Market record

HYPE Up or Down · 15 Min

03:45 → 04:00 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled03:45 → 04:00 UTC

Market ID hype-15m-20261115-0345

Settled

Nov 15, 04:00:00 UTC

Price to beat

$66.193
Index at 03:45:00

Final index

$66.120

Settlement price

$66.120
Index at 04:00:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
66.02766.31066.45203:4503:4803:5203:5604:00PTB 66.193

Settlement $66.120

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
UP54.3%Low
UP 54.3%45.7% DOWN
Historical accuracy
33.3%
6 markets
Model version
meta-hype15-v1
published 03:45:05 UTC

Base consensus

6 / 9 UP

66.7% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 03:45:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentUP56.3%
UP 56.3%43.7% DOWN
Medium33.3%6 marketsLOSS
Momentum AgentUP54.3%
UP 54.3%45.7% DOWN
Medium16.7%6 marketsLOSS
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN51.9%
UP 48.1%51.9% DOWN
Medium66.7%6 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentUP55.3%
UP 55.3%44.7% DOWN
Medium16.7%6 marketsLOSS
Order Flow AgentUP50.7%
UP 50.7%49.3% DOWN
Low16.7%6 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentDOWN50.9%
UP 49.1%50.9% DOWN
Low66.7%6 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentUP50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low66.7%6 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentUP50.1%
UP 50.1%49.9% DOWN
Low33.3%6 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentDOWN50.7%
UP 49.3%50.7% DOWN
Low33.3%6 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for HYPE: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 03:45:00 UTC

03:45:00 UTC
  • BybitUSDT→USD+0.4 bps66.195ok
  • Hyperliquid0.0 bps66.193ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.3 bps66.190ok
Median of 3 sources$66.193

Settlement · 04:00:00 UTC

04:00:00 UTC
  • BybitUSDT→USD0.0 bps66.120ok
  • Hyperliquid−4.3 bps66.092ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+2.3 bps66.135ok
Median of 3 sources$66.120

Recent resolved markets

The latest 15 Min HYPE windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
03:30 → 03:45Nov 1566.09566.193UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.5%LOSS
03:15 → 03:30Nov 1566.26066.095DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.2%WIN
03:00 → 03:15Nov 1566.09666.260UP5 / 9 DOWNUP51.5%WIN
02:45 → 03:00Nov 1565.97066.096UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.3%LOSS
02:30 → 02:45Nov 1565.79965.970UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.3%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on HYPE · 15 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · HYPE 15 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent66.7%6 mkts
  2. 2Mean Reversion Agent66.7%6 mkts
  3. 3Volatility Agent66.7%6 mkts
  4. 4OI/Funding Agent33.3%6 mkts
  5. 5Trend Agent33.3%6 mkts
  6. 6Whale Flow Agent33.3%6 mkts

About this market

Hyperliquid · 15 Minute windows

Fifteen-minute windows sit between micro-structure and intraday trend. Flow and positioning signals still dominate, but trend and volatility context starts to carry real information.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, derivatives positioning and momentum shifts.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology