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PROBORA

Market record

HYPE Up or Down · 15 Min

04:00 → 04:15 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled04:00 → 04:15 UTC

Market ID hype-15m-20261115-0400

Settled

Nov 15, 04:15:00 UTC

Price to beat

$66.120
Index at 04:00:00

Final index

$66.171

Settlement price

$66.171
Index at 04:15:00

Outcome

UP
Immutable record
65.71365.89966.27204:0004:0304:0704:1104:15PTB 66.120

Settlement $66.171

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
UP51.2%Low
UP 51.2%48.8% DOWN
Historical accuracy
42.9%
7 markets
Model version
meta-hype15-v1
published 04:00:11 UTC

Base consensus

5 / 9 UP

55.6% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 04:00:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN53.2%
UP 46.8%53.2% DOWN
Medium28.6%7 marketsLOSS
Momentum AgentUP58.1%
UP 58.1%41.9% DOWN
Medium28.6%7 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN51.7%
UP 48.3%51.7% DOWN
Medium57.1%7 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentUP52.9%
UP 52.9%47.1% DOWN
Medium28.6%7 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentUP50.4%
UP 50.4%49.6% DOWN
Low28.6%7 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentUP56.8%
UP 56.8%43.2% DOWN
Medium71.4%7 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentUP50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low71.4%7 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.3%
UP 49.7%50.3% DOWN
Low28.6%7 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentDOWN50.5%
UP 49.5%50.5% DOWN
Low28.6%7 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for HYPE: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 04:00:00 UTC

04:00:00 UTC
  • BybitUSDT→USD0.0 bps66.120ok
  • Hyperliquid−4.3 bps66.092ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+2.3 bps66.135ok
Median of 3 sources$66.120

Settlement · 04:15:00 UTC

04:15:00 UTC
  • BybitUSDT→USD0.0 bps66.171ok
  • Hyperliquid−5.3 bps66.136ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+2.6 bps66.188ok
Median of 3 sources$66.171

Recent resolved markets

The latest 15 Min HYPE windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
03:45 → 04:00Nov 1566.19366.120DOWN6 / 9 UPUP54.3%LOSS
03:30 → 03:45Nov 1566.09566.193UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.5%LOSS
03:15 → 03:30Nov 1566.26066.095DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.2%WIN
03:00 → 03:15Nov 1566.09666.260UP5 / 9 DOWNUP51.5%WIN
02:45 → 03:00Nov 1565.97066.096UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.3%LOSS
02:30 → 02:45Nov 1565.79965.970UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.3%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on HYPE · 15 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · HYPE 15 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent71.4%7 mkts
  2. 2Volatility Agent71.4%7 mkts
  3. 3Mean Reversion Agent57.1%7 mkts
  4. 4Meta Agent42.9%7 mkts
  5. 5Trend Agent28.6%7 mkts
  6. 6Momentum Agent28.6%7 mkts

About this market

Hyperliquid · 15 Minute windows

Fifteen-minute windows sit between micro-structure and intraday trend. Flow and positioning signals still dominate, but trend and volatility context starts to carry real information.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, derivatives positioning and momentum shifts.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology