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PROBORA

Market record

SOL Up or Down · 5 Min

08:55 → 09:00 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled08:55 → 09:00 UTC

Market ID sol-5m-20261115-0855

Settled

Nov 15, 09:00:00 UTC

Price to beat

$70.63
Index at 08:55:00

Final index

$71.10

Settlement price

$71.10
Index at 09:00:00

Outcome

UP
Immutable record
70.7970.9471.0908:5508:5608:5708:5809:00PTB 70.63

Settlement $71.10

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
DOWN53.8%Medium
UP 46.2%53.8% DOWN
Historical accuracy
48.5%
130 markets
Model version
meta-sol5-v1
published 08:55:04 UTC

Base consensus

7 / 9 DOWN

77.8% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 08:55:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN51.1%
UP 48.9%51.1% DOWN
Medium45.0%131 marketsLOSS
Momentum AgentDOWN51.7%
UP 48.3%51.7% DOWN
Medium46.6%131 marketsLOSS
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN50.4%
UP 49.6%50.4% DOWN
Medium49.6%131 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN52.3%
UP 47.7%52.3% DOWN
Medium48.1%131 marketsLOSS
Order Flow AgentDOWN51.6%
UP 48.4%51.6% DOWN
Low56.5%131 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentDOWN52.4%
UP 47.6%52.4% DOWN
Medium49.2%130 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentUP52.1%
UP 52.1%47.9% DOWN
Low51.5%130 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low53.1%130 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentUP50.1%
UP 50.1%49.9% DOWN
Low46.9%130 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for SOL: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 08:55:00 UTC

08:55:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.5 bps70.63ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps70.63ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+1.6 bps70.64ok
Median of 3 sources$70.63

Settlement · 09:00:00 UTC

09:00:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+2.3 bps71.12ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps71.10ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−1.2 bps71.09ok
Median of 3 sources$71.10

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min SOL windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
08:50 → 08:55Nov 1570.5370.63UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.9%LOSS
08:45 → 08:50Nov 1570.5370.53FLAT7 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.0%PUSH
08:40 → 08:45Nov 1570.4170.53UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.3%LOSS
08:35 → 08:40Nov 1570.5170.41DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.9%WIN
08:30 → 08:35Nov 1570.5470.51DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.7%WIN
08:25 → 08:30Nov 1570.2470.54UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.5%LOSS
08:20 → 08:25Nov 1569.9070.24UP9 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.4%LOSS
08:15 → 08:20Nov 1569.8269.90UP9 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.9%LOSS
08:10 → 08:15Nov 1570.0769.82DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.1%WIN
08:05 → 08:10Nov 1569.9670.07UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.8%LOSS
08:00 → 08:05Nov 1569.9269.96UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.1%LOSS
07:55 → 08:00Nov 1569.8169.92UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.0%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on SOL · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · SOL 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Order Flow Agent56.5%131 mkts
  2. 2Liquidation Agent51.5%130 mkts
  3. 3OI/Funding Agent53.1%130 mkts
  4. 4Mean Reversion Agent49.6%131 mkts
  5. 5Whale Flow Agent46.9%130 mkts
  6. 6RSI Divergence Agent48.1%131 mkts

About this market

Solana · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology