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PROBORA

Market record

SOL Up or Down · 5 Min

08:20 → 08:25 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled08:20 → 08:25 UTC

Market ID sol-5m-20261115-0820

Settled

Nov 15, 08:25:00 UTC

Price to beat

$69.90
Index at 08:20:00

Final index

$70.24

Settlement price

$70.24
Index at 08:25:00

Outcome

UP
Immutable record
70.0970.2670.4408:2008:2108:2208:2308:25PTB 69.90

Settlement $70.24

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
DOWN56.4%High
UP 43.6%56.4% DOWN
Historical accuracy
47.1%
119 markets
Model version
meta-sol5-v1
published 08:20:04 UTC

Base consensus

9 / 9 DOWN

100.0% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 08:20:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN50.8%
UP 49.2%50.8% DOWN
Medium45.0%120 marketsLOSS
Momentum AgentDOWN53.2%
UP 46.8%53.2% DOWN
Medium46.7%120 marketsLOSS
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN50.6%
UP 49.4%50.6% DOWN
Medium47.5%120 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN53.7%
UP 46.3%53.7% DOWN
Medium47.5%120 marketsLOSS
Order Flow AgentDOWN50.5%
UP 49.5%50.5% DOWN
Low55.8%120 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentDOWN54.0%
UP 46.0%54.0% DOWN
Medium49.6%119 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentDOWN50.3%
UP 49.7%50.3% DOWN
Low51.3%119 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.1%
UP 49.9%50.1% DOWN
Low52.9%119 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentDOWN51.1%
UP 48.9%51.1% DOWN
Low45.4%119 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for SOL: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 08:20:00 UTC

08:20:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−1.9 bps69.89ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps69.90ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+0.2 bps69.90ok
Median of 3 sources$69.90

Settlement · 08:25:00 UTC

08:25:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps70.24ok
  • Coinbase−0.9 bps70.23ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+0.7 bps70.24ok
Median of 3 sources$70.24

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min SOL windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
08:15 → 08:20Nov 1569.8269.90UP9 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.9%LOSS
08:10 → 08:15Nov 1570.0769.82DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.1%WIN
08:05 → 08:10Nov 1569.9670.07UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.8%LOSS
08:00 → 08:05Nov 1569.9269.96UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.1%LOSS
07:55 → 08:00Nov 1569.8169.92UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.0%LOSS
07:50 → 07:55Nov 1569.6469.81UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN63.1%LOSS
07:45 → 07:50Nov 1569.7069.64DOWN9 / 9 DOWNDOWN65.3%WIN
07:40 → 07:45Nov 1569.9769.70DOWN9 / 9 DOWNDOWN63.9%WIN
07:35 → 07:40Nov 1570.1969.97DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.5%WIN
07:30 → 07:35Nov 1570.3270.19DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.4%WIN
07:25 → 07:30Nov 1570.3670.32DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.1%WIN
07:20 → 07:25Nov 1570.3870.36DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.1%WIN

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on SOL · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · SOL 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Order Flow Agent55.8%120 mkts
  2. 2Liquidation Agent51.3%119 mkts
  3. 3OI/Funding Agent52.9%119 mkts
  4. 4Mean Reversion Agent47.5%120 mkts
  5. 5RSI Divergence Agent47.5%120 mkts
  6. 6Whale Flow Agent45.4%119 mkts

About this market

Solana · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology