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PROBORA

Market record

XRP Up or Down · 5 Min

07:40 → 07:45 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled07:40 → 07:45 UTC

Market ID xrp-5m-20261115-0740

Settled

Nov 15, 07:45:00 UTC

Price to beat

$0.9496
Index at 07:40:00

Final index

$0.9456

Settlement price

$0.9456
Index at 07:45:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
0.94580.94730.94890.950407:4007:4107:4207:4307:45PTB 0.9496

Settlement $0.9456

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN60.8%High
UP 39.2%60.8% DOWN
Historical accuracy
50.9%
106 markets
Model version
meta-xrp5-v1
published 07:40:03 UTC

Base consensus

7 / 9 DOWN

77.8% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 07:40:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN57.7%
UP 42.3%57.7% DOWN
Medium50.0%106 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN58.6%
UP 41.4%58.6% DOWN
Medium51.9%106 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN56.4%
UP 43.6%56.4% DOWN
Medium49.1%106 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN51.4%
UP 48.6%51.4% DOWN
Medium50.0%106 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentUP50.8%
UP 50.8%49.2% DOWN
Low46.2%106 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentDOWN54.3%
UP 45.7%54.3% DOWN
Medium52.8%106 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentDOWN52.2%
UP 47.8%52.2% DOWN
Low54.7%106 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.1%
UP 49.9%50.1% DOWN
Low44.3%106 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentUP51.0%
UP 51.0%49.0% DOWN
Low46.2%106 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for XRP: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 07:40:00 UTC

07:40:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+0.5 bps0.9497ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps0.9496ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−2.1 bps0.9494ok
Median of 3 sources$0.9496

Settlement · 07:45:00 UTC

07:45:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.8 bps0.9455ok
  • Coinbase——error
  • OKXUSDT→USD+0.8 bps0.9457ok
Median of 2 sources$0.9456

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min XRP windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
07:35 → 07:40Nov 150.95100.9496DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.7%WIN
07:30 → 07:35Nov 150.95420.9510DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.5%WIN
07:25 → 07:30Nov 150.95560.9542DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.5%WIN
07:20 → 07:25Nov 150.95630.9556DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN66.6%WIN
07:15 → 07:20Nov 150.95460.9563UP9 / 9 DOWNDOWN68.8%LOSS
07:10 → 07:15Nov 150.95700.9546DOWN5 / 9 UPDOWN54.9%WIN
07:05 → 07:10Nov 150.95520.9570UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.2%LOSS
07:00 → 07:05Nov 150.95830.9552DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN63.6%WIN
06:55 → 07:00Nov 150.95840.9583DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN71.2%WIN
06:50 → 06:55Nov 150.96380.9584DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.5%WIN
06:45 → 06:50Nov 150.96290.9638UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.2%LOSS
06:40 → 06:45Nov 150.96050.9629UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.4%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on XRP · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · XRP 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent54.7%106 mkts
  2. 2Volatility Agent52.8%106 mkts
  3. 3Momentum Agent51.9%106 mkts
  4. 4Order Flow Agent46.2%106 mkts
  5. 5Whale Flow Agent46.2%106 mkts
  6. 6Mean Reversion Agent49.1%106 mkts

About this market

XRP · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology