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PROBORA

Market record

XRP Up or Down · 5 Min

12:40 → 12:45 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled12:40 → 12:45 UTC

Market ID xrp-5m-20261115-1240

Settled

Nov 15, 12:45:00 UTC

Price to beat

$0.9682
Index at 12:40:00

Final index

$0.9695

Settlement price

$0.9695
Index at 12:45:00

Outcome

UP
Immutable record
0.96710.96790.96870.969512:4012:4112:4212:4312:45PTB 0.9682

Settlement $0.9695

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
DOWN59.6%Medium
UP 40.4%59.6% DOWN
Historical accuracy
49.8%
207 markets
Model version
meta-xrp5-v1
published 12:40:05 UTC

Base consensus

6 / 9 DOWN

66.7% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 12:40:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN54.5%
UP 45.5%54.5% DOWN
Medium52.7%207 marketsLOSS
Momentum AgentDOWN61.6%
UP 38.4%61.6% DOWN
Medium49.8%207 marketsLOSS
Mean Reversion AgentUP52.1%
UP 52.1%47.9% DOWN
Medium49.3%207 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN58.7%
UP 41.3%58.7% DOWN
Medium52.2%207 marketsLOSS
Order Flow AgentDOWN50.1%
UP 49.9%50.1% DOWN
Low47.3%207 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentDOWN59.0%
UP 41.0%59.0% DOWN
Medium51.2%207 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentUP52.2%
UP 52.2%47.8% DOWN
Low53.1%207 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentUP50.4%
UP 50.4%49.6% DOWN
Low46.4%207 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentDOWN51.2%
UP 48.8%51.2% DOWN
Low49.8%207 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for XRP: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 12:40:00 UTC

12:40:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.5 bps0.9682ok
  • Coinbase+0.8 bps0.9683ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps0.9682ok
Median of 3 sources$0.9682

Settlement · 12:45:00 UTC

12:45:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps0.9695ok
  • Coinbase+3.5 bps0.9698ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.5 bps0.9694ok
Median of 3 sources$0.9695

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min XRP windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
12:35 → 12:40Nov 150.97120.9682DOWN6 / 9 UPUP53.1%LOSS
12:30 → 12:35Nov 150.97030.9712UP7 / 9 UPDOWN50.7%LOSS
12:25 → 12:30Nov 150.96840.9703UP6 / 9 UPDOWN51.8%LOSS
12:20 → 12:25Nov 150.96700.9684UP5 / 9 UPDOWN52.1%LOSS
12:15 → 12:20Nov 150.96490.9670UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.2%LOSS
12:10 → 12:15Nov 150.96460.9649UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.2%LOSS
12:05 → 12:10Nov 150.96080.9646UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.2%LOSS
12:00 → 12:05Nov 150.96230.9608DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.4%WIN
11:55 → 12:00Nov 150.96510.9623DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.1%WIN
11:50 → 11:55Nov 150.96640.9651DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.1%WIN
11:45 → 11:50Nov 150.96730.9664DOWN5 / 9 UPDOWN54.4%WIN
11:40 → 11:45Nov 150.96730.9673FLAT6 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.4%PUSH

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on XRP · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · XRP 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent53.1%207 mkts
  2. 2Trend Agent52.7%207 mkts
  3. 3Whale Flow Agent49.8%207 mkts
  4. 4Volatility Agent51.2%207 mkts
  5. 5RSI Divergence Agent52.2%207 mkts
  6. 6Order Flow Agent47.3%207 mkts

About this market

XRP · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology