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PROBORA

Market record

XRP Up or Down · 5 Min

12:15 → 12:20 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled12:15 → 12:20 UTC

Market ID xrp-5m-20261115-1215

Settled

Nov 15, 12:20:00 UTC

Price to beat

$0.9649
Index at 12:15:00

Final index

$0.9670

Settlement price

$0.9670
Index at 12:20:00

Outcome

UP
Immutable record
0.96390.96620.967412:1512:1612:1712:1812:20PTB 0.9649

Settlement $0.9670

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
DOWN60.2%High
UP 39.8%60.2% DOWN
Historical accuracy
50.0%
198 markets
Model version
meta-xrp5-v1
published 12:15:06 UTC

Base consensus

7 / 9 DOWN

77.8% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 12:15:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN54.0%
UP 46.0%54.0% DOWN
Medium53.0%198 marketsLOSS
Momentum AgentDOWN58.4%
UP 41.6%58.4% DOWN
Medium50.5%198 marketsLOSS
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN51.6%
UP 48.4%51.6% DOWN
Medium49.5%198 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN53.5%
UP 46.5%53.5% DOWN
Medium52.0%198 marketsLOSS
Order Flow AgentUP51.6%
UP 51.6%48.4% DOWN
Low46.0%198 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentDOWN54.6%
UP 45.4%54.6% DOWN
Medium51.5%198 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentDOWN52.2%
UP 47.8%52.2% DOWN
Low53.0%198 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentUP50.3%
UP 50.3%49.7% DOWN
Low46.0%198 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentDOWN51.3%
UP 48.7%51.3% DOWN
Low48.5%198 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for XRP: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 12:15:00 UTC

12:15:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps0.9649ok
  • Coinbase+5.4 bps0.9654ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.5 bps0.9648ok
Median of 3 sources$0.9649

Settlement · 12:20:00 UTC

12:20:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps0.9670ok
  • Coinbase+3.3 bps0.9673ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−2.6 bps0.9667ok
Median of 3 sources$0.9670

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min XRP windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
12:10 → 12:15Nov 150.96460.9649UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.2%LOSS
12:05 → 12:10Nov 150.96080.9646UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.2%LOSS
12:00 → 12:05Nov 150.96230.9608DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.4%WIN
11:55 → 12:00Nov 150.96510.9623DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.1%WIN
11:50 → 11:55Nov 150.96640.9651DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.1%WIN
11:45 → 11:50Nov 150.96730.9664DOWN5 / 9 UPDOWN54.4%WIN
11:40 → 11:45Nov 150.96730.9673FLAT6 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.4%PUSH
11:35 → 11:40Nov 150.96550.9673UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.2%LOSS
11:30 → 11:35Nov 150.96440.9655UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.9%LOSS
11:25 → 11:30Nov 150.96350.9644UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.4%LOSS
11:20 → 11:25Nov 150.96360.9635DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.0%WIN
11:15 → 11:20Nov 150.96170.9636UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.7%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on XRP · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · XRP 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent53.0%198 mkts
  2. 2Trend Agent53.0%198 mkts
  3. 3Volatility Agent51.5%198 mkts
  4. 4Whale Flow Agent48.5%198 mkts
  5. 5RSI Divergence Agent52.0%198 mkts
  6. 6OI/Funding Agent46.0%198 mkts

About this market

XRP · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology