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PROBORA

Market record

XRP Up or Down · 5 Min

11:20 → 11:25 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled11:20 → 11:25 UTC

Market ID xrp-5m-20261115-1120

Settled

Nov 15, 11:25:00 UTC

Price to beat

$0.9636
Index at 11:20:00

Final index

$0.9635

Settlement price

$0.9635
Index at 11:25:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
0.96280.96490.965911:2011:2111:2211:2311:25PTB 0.9636

Settlement $0.9635

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN52.0%Medium
UP 48.0%52.0% DOWN
Historical accuracy
50.8%
179 markets
Model version
meta-xrp5-v1
published 11:20:04 UTC

Base consensus

5 / 9 DOWN

55.6% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 11:20:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Medium53.6%179 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN51.8%
UP 48.2%51.8% DOWN
Medium50.3%179 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN52.8%
UP 47.2%52.8% DOWN
Medium50.3%179 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN53.6%
UP 46.4%53.6% DOWN
Medium53.1%179 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentUP51.9%
UP 51.9%48.1% DOWN
Low45.3%179 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentDOWN51.0%
UP 49.0%51.0% DOWN
Medium53.1%179 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentUP50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low53.1%179 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentUP50.2%
UP 50.2%49.8% DOWN
Low44.1%179 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentUP52.3%
UP 52.3%47.7% DOWN
Low48.6%179 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for XRP: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 11:20:00 UTC

11:20:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+0.3 bps0.9636ok
  • Coinbase——error
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.3 bps0.9636ok
Median of 2 sources$0.9636

Settlement · 11:25:00 UTC

11:25:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps0.9635ok
  • Coinbase+3.0 bps0.9638ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.5 bps0.9635ok
Median of 3 sources$0.9635

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min XRP windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
11:15 → 11:20Nov 150.96170.9636UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.7%LOSS
11:10 → 11:15Nov 150.96190.9617DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.5%WIN
11:05 → 11:10Nov 150.96380.9619DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN67.1%WIN
11:00 → 11:05Nov 15——VOID—Insufficient Data
10:55 → 11:00Nov 150.96280.9649UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.2%LOSS
10:50 → 10:55Nov 150.96290.9628DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN65.6%WIN
10:45 → 10:50Nov 150.96340.9629DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.0%WIN
10:40 → 10:45Nov 150.96270.9634UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.7%LOSS
10:35 → 10:40Nov 150.96240.9627UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.2%LOSS
10:30 → 10:35Nov 150.96200.9624UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.3%LOSS
10:25 → 10:30Nov 150.96290.9620DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.8%WIN
10:20 → 10:25Nov 150.96450.9629DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.2%WIN

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on XRP · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · XRP 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent53.1%179 mkts
  2. 2Volatility Agent53.1%179 mkts
  3. 3Trend Agent53.6%179 mkts
  4. 4Whale Flow Agent48.6%179 mkts
  5. 5RSI Divergence Agent53.1%179 mkts
  6. 6Mean Reversion Agent50.3%179 mkts

About this market

XRP · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology