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PROBORA

Market record

XRP Up or Down · 5 Min

10:45 → 10:50 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled10:45 → 10:50 UTC

Market ID xrp-5m-20261115-1045

Settled

Nov 15, 10:50:00 UTC

Price to beat

$0.9634
Index at 10:45:00

Final index

$0.9629

Settlement price

$0.9629
Index at 10:50:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
0.96290.96370.964110:4510:4610:4710:4810:50PTB 0.9634

Settlement $0.9629

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN60.0%High
UP 40.0%60.0% DOWN
Historical accuracy
49.4%
166 markets
Model version
meta-xrp5-v1
published 10:45:06 UTC

Base consensus

6 / 9 DOWN

66.7% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 10:45:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN53.6%
UP 46.4%53.6% DOWN
Medium52.4%166 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN53.7%
UP 46.3%53.7% DOWN
Medium49.4%166 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN56.5%
UP 43.5%56.5% DOWN
Medium48.8%166 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN53.3%
UP 46.7%53.3% DOWN
Medium51.8%166 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentUP52.7%
UP 52.7%47.3% DOWN
Low45.2%166 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentDOWN55.4%
UP 44.6%55.4% DOWN
Medium51.2%166 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentDOWN52.2%
UP 47.8%52.2% DOWN
Low53.0%166 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentUP50.2%
UP 50.2%49.8% DOWN
Low45.2%166 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentUP51.6%
UP 51.6%48.4% DOWN
Low48.8%166 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for XRP: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 10:45:00 UTC

10:45:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps0.9634ok
  • Coinbase+2.0 bps0.9636ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−2.6 bps0.9632ok
Median of 3 sources$0.9634

Settlement · 10:50:00 UTC

10:50:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps0.9629ok
  • Coinbase+0.1 bps0.9629ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−2.6 bps0.9626ok
Median of 3 sources$0.9629

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min XRP windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
10:40 → 10:45Nov 150.96270.9634UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.7%LOSS
10:35 → 10:40Nov 150.96240.9627UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.2%LOSS
10:30 → 10:35Nov 150.96200.9624UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.3%LOSS
10:25 → 10:30Nov 150.96290.9620DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.8%WIN
10:20 → 10:25Nov 150.96450.9629DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.2%WIN
10:15 → 10:20Nov 150.96790.9645DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.8%WIN
10:10 → 10:15Nov 150.96750.9679UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.8%LOSS
10:05 → 10:10Nov 150.96460.9675UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.7%LOSS
10:00 → 10:05Nov 150.96300.9646UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.6%LOSS
09:55 → 10:00Nov 150.96340.9630DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.0%WIN
09:50 → 09:55Nov 150.96210.9634UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN65.1%LOSS
09:45 → 09:50Nov 150.96570.9621DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN62.3%WIN

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on XRP · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · XRP 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent53.0%166 mkts
  2. 2Trend Agent52.4%166 mkts
  3. 3Whale Flow Agent48.8%166 mkts
  4. 4Volatility Agent51.2%166 mkts
  5. 5RSI Divergence Agent51.8%166 mkts
  6. 6OI/Funding Agent45.2%166 mkts

About this market

XRP · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology