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PROBORA

Market record

XRP Up or Down · 5 Min

09:45 → 09:50 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled09:45 → 09:50 UTC

Market ID xrp-5m-20261115-0945

Settled

Nov 15, 09:50:00 UTC

Price to beat

$0.9657
Index at 09:45:00

Final index

$0.9621

Settlement price

$0.9621
Index at 09:50:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
0.96220.96350.96490.966209:4509:4609:4709:4809:50PTB 0.9657

Settlement $0.9621

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN62.3%High
UP 37.7%62.3% DOWN
Historical accuracy
49.7%
145 markets
Model version
meta-xrp5-v1
published 09:45:06 UTC

Base consensus

8 / 9 DOWN

88.9% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 09:45:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN57.8%
UP 42.2%57.8% DOWN
Medium51.0%145 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN56.5%
UP 43.5%56.5% DOWN
Medium51.0%145 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN52.2%
UP 47.8%52.2% DOWN
Medium49.7%145 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN53.9%
UP 46.1%53.9% DOWN
Medium51.7%145 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentDOWN51.6%
UP 48.4%51.6% DOWN
Low46.2%145 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentDOWN55.0%
UP 45.0%55.0% DOWN
Medium52.4%145 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentDOWN52.1%
UP 47.9%52.1% DOWN
Low52.4%145 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentUP50.1%
UP 50.1%49.9% DOWN
Low44.8%145 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentDOWN51.1%
UP 48.9%51.1% DOWN
Low48.3%145 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for XRP: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 09:45:00 UTC

09:45:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps0.9657ok
  • Coinbase+1.7 bps0.9659ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−2.6 bps0.9655ok
Median of 3 sources$0.9657

Settlement · 09:50:00 UTC

09:50:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps0.9621ok
  • Coinbase+2.9 bps0.9624ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.5 bps0.9621ok
Median of 3 sources$0.9621

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min XRP windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
09:40 → 09:45Nov 150.96590.9657DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.9%WIN
09:35 → 09:40Nov 150.96560.9659UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN65.2%LOSS
09:30 → 09:35Nov 150.96960.9656DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.1%WIN
09:25 → 09:30Nov 15——VOID—Insufficient Data
09:20 → 09:25Nov 150.96850.9682DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN71.3%WIN
09:15 → 09:20Nov 150.96980.9685DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN65.4%WIN
09:10 → 09:15Nov 150.96660.9698UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN67.1%LOSS
09:05 → 09:10Nov 150.96420.9666UP6 / 9 UPDOWN54.1%LOSS
09:00 → 09:05Nov 150.95660.9642UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.7%LOSS
08:55 → 09:00Nov 150.95300.9566UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN65.6%LOSS
08:50 → 08:55Nov 150.95070.9530UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.1%LOSS
08:45 → 08:50Nov 150.95100.9507DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.7%WIN

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on XRP · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · XRP 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent52.4%145 mkts
  2. 2Volatility Agent52.4%145 mkts
  3. 3Whale Flow Agent48.3%145 mkts
  4. 4Trend Agent51.0%145 mkts
  5. 5RSI Divergence Agent51.7%145 mkts
  6. 6Order Flow Agent46.2%145 mkts

About this market

XRP · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology