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PROBORA

Market record

XRP Up or Down · 5 Min

09:10 → 09:15 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled09:10 → 09:15 UTC

Market ID xrp-5m-20261115-0910

Settled

Nov 15, 09:15:00 UTC

Price to beat

$0.9666
Index at 09:10:00

Final index

$0.9698

Settlement price

$0.9698
Index at 09:15:00

Outcome

UP
Immutable record
0.96590.96750.96900.970609:1009:1109:1209:1309:15PTB 0.9666

Settlement $0.9698

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
DOWN67.1%High
UP 32.9%67.1% DOWN
Historical accuracy
48.5%
134 markets
Model version
meta-xrp5-v1
published 09:10:04 UTC

Base consensus

5 / 9 DOWN

55.6% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 09:10:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN55.4%
UP 44.6%55.4% DOWN
Medium50.7%134 marketsLOSS
Momentum AgentDOWN58.9%
UP 41.1%58.9% DOWN
Medium50.0%134 marketsLOSS
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN62.1%
UP 37.9%62.1% DOWN
Medium48.5%134 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN62.8%
UP 37.2%62.8% DOWN
Medium50.0%134 marketsLOSS
Order Flow AgentUP52.6%
UP 52.6%47.4% DOWN
Low44.8%134 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentDOWN53.2%
UP 46.8%53.2% DOWN
Medium53.0%134 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentUP52.2%
UP 52.2%47.8% DOWN
Low51.5%134 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentUP50.2%
UP 50.2%49.8% DOWN
Low45.5%134 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentUP50.1%
UP 50.1%49.9% DOWN
Low47.8%134 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for XRP: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 09:10:00 UTC

09:10:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.5 bps0.9666ok
  • Coinbase+2.7 bps0.9669ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps0.9666ok
Median of 3 sources$0.9666

Settlement · 09:15:00 UTC

09:15:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps0.9698ok
  • Coinbase+1.1 bps0.9699ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−2.6 bps0.9695ok
Median of 3 sources$0.9698

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min XRP windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
09:05 → 09:10Nov 150.96420.9666UP6 / 9 UPDOWN54.1%LOSS
09:00 → 09:05Nov 150.95660.9642UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.7%LOSS
08:55 → 09:00Nov 150.95300.9566UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN65.6%LOSS
08:50 → 08:55Nov 150.95070.9530UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.1%LOSS
08:45 → 08:50Nov 150.95100.9507DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.7%WIN
08:40 → 08:45Nov 150.94960.9510UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN65.7%LOSS
08:35 → 08:40Nov 150.95210.9496DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN69.0%WIN
08:30 → 08:35Nov 150.95530.9521DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.1%WIN
08:25 → 08:30Nov 150.95100.9553UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.0%LOSS
08:20 → 08:25Nov 150.94750.9510UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN65.3%LOSS
08:15 → 08:20Nov 150.94770.9475DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN69.6%WIN
08:10 → 08:15Nov 150.95030.9477DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN63.8%WIN

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on XRP · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · XRP 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent51.5%134 mkts
  2. 2Volatility Agent53.0%134 mkts
  3. 3Whale Flow Agent47.8%134 mkts
  4. 4Trend Agent50.7%134 mkts
  5. 5OI/Funding Agent45.5%134 mkts
  6. 6Mean Reversion Agent48.5%134 mkts

About this market

XRP · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology