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PROBORA

Market record

XRP Up or Down · 5 Min

08:45 → 08:50 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled08:45 → 08:50 UTC

Market ID xrp-5m-20261115-0845

Settled

Nov 15, 08:50:00 UTC

Price to beat

$0.9510
Index at 08:45:00

Final index

$0.9507

Settlement price

$0.9507
Index at 08:50:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
0.95050.95130.95210.952908:4508:4608:4708:4808:50PTB 0.9510

Settlement $0.9507

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN60.7%High
UP 39.3%60.7% DOWN
Historical accuracy
48.4%
126 markets
Model version
meta-xrp5-v1
published 08:45:06 UTC

Base consensus

8 / 9 DOWN

88.9% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 08:45:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN52.9%
UP 47.1%52.9% DOWN
Medium50.0%126 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN54.6%
UP 45.4%54.6% DOWN
Medium50.0%126 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN54.2%
UP 45.8%54.2% DOWN
Medium47.6%126 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN56.1%
UP 43.9%56.1% DOWN
Medium48.4%126 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentDOWN52.2%
UP 47.8%52.2% DOWN
Low44.4%126 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentDOWN54.4%
UP 45.6%54.4% DOWN
Medium53.2%126 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentUP52.2%
UP 52.2%47.8% DOWN
Low53.2%126 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.2%
UP 49.8%50.2% DOWN
Low46.8%126 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentDOWN51.0%
UP 49.0%51.0% DOWN
Low46.8%126 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for XRP: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 08:45:00 UTC

08:45:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−1.6 bps0.9508ok
  • Coinbase+0.5 bps0.9510ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps0.9510ok
Median of 3 sources$0.9510

Settlement · 08:50:00 UTC

08:50:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+3.2 bps0.9510ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps0.9507ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−1.5 bps0.9506ok
Median of 3 sources$0.9507

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min XRP windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
08:40 → 08:45Nov 150.94960.9510UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN65.7%LOSS
08:35 → 08:40Nov 150.95210.9496DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN69.0%WIN
08:30 → 08:35Nov 150.95530.9521DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.1%WIN
08:25 → 08:30Nov 150.95100.9553UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.0%LOSS
08:20 → 08:25Nov 150.94750.9510UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN65.3%LOSS
08:15 → 08:20Nov 150.94770.9475DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN69.6%WIN
08:10 → 08:15Nov 150.95030.9477DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN63.8%WIN
08:05 → 08:10Nov 150.94860.9503UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.7%LOSS
08:00 → 08:05Nov 150.94720.9486UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN62.4%LOSS
07:55 → 08:00Nov 150.94570.9472UP6 / 9 UPDOWN51.3%LOSS
07:50 → 07:55Nov 150.94390.9457UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN77.8%LOSS
07:45 → 07:50Nov 150.94560.9439DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.3%WIN

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on XRP · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · XRP 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent53.2%126 mkts
  2. 2Volatility Agent53.2%126 mkts
  3. 3OI/Funding Agent46.8%126 mkts
  4. 4Whale Flow Agent46.8%126 mkts
  5. 5Trend Agent50.0%126 mkts
  6. 6Momentum Agent50.0%126 mkts

About this market

XRP · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology