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PROBORA

Market record

XRP Up or Down · 5 Min

08:10 → 08:15 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled08:10 → 08:15 UTC

Market ID xrp-5m-20261115-0810

Settled

Nov 15, 08:15:00 UTC

Price to beat

$0.9503
Index at 08:10:00

Final index

$0.9477

Settlement price

$0.9477
Index at 08:15:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
0.94780.94880.94970.950708:1008:1108:1208:1308:15PTB 0.9503

Settlement $0.9477

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN63.8%High
UP 36.2%63.8% DOWN
Historical accuracy
50.9%
114 markets
Model version
meta-xrp5-v1
published 08:10:04 UTC

Base consensus

6 / 9 DOWN

66.7% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 08:10:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN51.1%
UP 48.9%51.1% DOWN
Medium50.0%114 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN58.9%
UP 41.1%58.9% DOWN
Medium51.8%114 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN52.8%
UP 47.2%52.8% DOWN
Medium48.2%114 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN59.5%
UP 40.5%59.5% DOWN
Medium50.0%114 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentUP51.2%
UP 51.2%48.8% DOWN
Low44.7%114 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentDOWN55.2%
UP 44.8%55.2% DOWN
Medium54.4%114 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentDOWN51.4%
UP 48.6%51.4% DOWN
Low51.8%114 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentUP50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low44.7%114 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentUP50.6%
UP 50.6%49.4% DOWN
Low46.5%114 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for XRP: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 08:10:00 UTC

08:10:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+1.2 bps0.9504ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps0.9503ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−1.4 bps0.9502ok
Median of 3 sources$0.9503

Settlement · 08:15:00 UTC

08:15:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−1.6 bps0.9475ok
  • Coinbase+1.5 bps0.9478ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps0.9477ok
Median of 3 sources$0.9477

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min XRP windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
08:05 → 08:10Nov 150.94860.9503UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.7%LOSS
08:00 → 08:05Nov 150.94720.9486UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN62.4%LOSS
07:55 → 08:00Nov 150.94570.9472UP6 / 9 UPDOWN51.3%LOSS
07:50 → 07:55Nov 150.94390.9457UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN77.8%LOSS
07:45 → 07:50Nov 150.94560.9439DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.3%WIN
07:40 → 07:45Nov 150.94960.9456DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.8%WIN
07:35 → 07:40Nov 150.95100.9496DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.7%WIN
07:30 → 07:35Nov 150.95420.9510DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.5%WIN
07:25 → 07:30Nov 150.95560.9542DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.5%WIN
07:20 → 07:25Nov 150.95630.9556DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN66.6%WIN
07:15 → 07:20Nov 150.95460.9563UP9 / 9 DOWNDOWN68.8%LOSS
07:10 → 07:15Nov 150.95700.9546DOWN5 / 9 UPDOWN54.9%WIN

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on XRP · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · XRP 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent51.8%114 mkts
  2. 2Volatility Agent54.4%114 mkts
  3. 3Momentum Agent51.8%114 mkts
  4. 4Whale Flow Agent46.5%114 mkts
  5. 5OI/Funding Agent44.7%114 mkts
  6. 6Trend Agent50.0%114 mkts

About this market

XRP · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology