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PROBORA

Market record

XRP Up or Down · 5 Min

08:50 → 08:55 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled08:50 → 08:55 UTC

Market ID xrp-5m-20261115-0850

Settled

Nov 15, 08:55:00 UTC

Price to beat

$0.9507
Index at 08:50:00

Final index

$0.9530

Settlement price

$0.9530
Index at 08:55:00

Outcome

UP
Immutable record
0.95010.95130.95260.953808:5008:5108:5208:5308:55PTB 0.9507

Settlement $0.9530

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
DOWN53.1%Low
UP 46.9%53.1% DOWN
Historical accuracy
48.4%
128 markets
Model version
meta-xrp5-v1
published 08:50:04 UTC

Base consensus

5 / 9 DOWN

55.6% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 08:50:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN58.1%
UP 41.9%58.1% DOWN
Medium50.0%128 marketsLOSS
Momentum AgentDOWN53.3%
UP 46.7%53.3% DOWN
Medium50.8%128 marketsLOSS
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN56.9%
UP 43.1%56.9% DOWN
Medium48.4%128 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN50.3%
UP 49.7%50.3% DOWN
Medium49.2%128 marketsLOSS
Order Flow AgentUP50.4%
UP 50.4%49.6% DOWN
Low43.8%128 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentUP50.1%
UP 50.1%49.9% DOWN
Medium53.1%128 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentUP52.2%
UP 52.2%47.8% DOWN
Low52.3%128 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.1%
UP 49.9%50.1% DOWN
Low46.1%128 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentUP51.0%
UP 51.0%49.0% DOWN
Low47.7%128 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for XRP: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 08:50:00 UTC

08:50:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+3.2 bps0.9510ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps0.9507ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−1.5 bps0.9506ok
Median of 3 sources$0.9507

Settlement · 08:55:00 UTC

08:55:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.5 bps0.9530ok
  • Coinbase+1.7 bps0.9532ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps0.9530ok
Median of 3 sources$0.9530

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min XRP windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
08:45 → 08:50Nov 150.95100.9507DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.7%WIN
08:40 → 08:45Nov 150.94960.9510UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN65.7%LOSS
08:35 → 08:40Nov 150.95210.9496DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN69.0%WIN
08:30 → 08:35Nov 150.95530.9521DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.1%WIN
08:25 → 08:30Nov 150.95100.9553UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.0%LOSS
08:20 → 08:25Nov 150.94750.9510UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN65.3%LOSS
08:15 → 08:20Nov 150.94770.9475DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN69.6%WIN
08:10 → 08:15Nov 150.95030.9477DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN63.8%WIN
08:05 → 08:10Nov 150.94860.9503UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.7%LOSS
08:00 → 08:05Nov 150.94720.9486UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN62.4%LOSS
07:55 → 08:00Nov 150.94570.9472UP6 / 9 UPDOWN51.3%LOSS
07:50 → 07:55Nov 150.94390.9457UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN77.8%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on XRP · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · XRP 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent52.3%128 mkts
  2. 2Volatility Agent53.1%128 mkts
  3. 3Whale Flow Agent47.7%128 mkts
  4. 4OI/Funding Agent46.1%128 mkts
  5. 5Momentum Agent50.8%128 mkts
  6. 6Trend Agent50.0%128 mkts

About this market

XRP · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology