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PROBORA

Market record

XRP Up or Down · 5 Min

09:20 → 09:25 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled09:20 → 09:25 UTC

Market ID xrp-5m-20261115-0920

Settled

Nov 15, 09:25:00 UTC

Price to beat

$0.9685
Index at 09:20:00

Final index

$0.9682

Settlement price

$0.9682
Index at 09:25:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
0.96940.97060.971809:2009:2109:2209:2309:25PTB 0.9685

Settlement $0.9682

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN71.3%High
UP 28.7%71.3% DOWN
Historical accuracy
48.2%
137 markets
Model version
meta-xrp5-v1
published 09:20:04 UTC

Base consensus

5 / 9 DOWN

55.6% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 09:20:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN55.6%
UP 44.4%55.6% DOWN
Medium50.4%137 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN58.0%
UP 42.0%58.0% DOWN
Medium49.6%137 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN54.8%
UP 45.2%54.8% DOWN
Medium48.2%137 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN62.6%
UP 37.4%62.6% DOWN
Medium50.4%137 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentUP51.8%
UP 51.8%48.2% DOWN
Low44.5%137 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentDOWN61.1%
UP 38.9%61.1% DOWN
Medium52.6%137 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentUP52.2%
UP 52.2%47.8% DOWN
Low51.1%137 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentUP50.1%
UP 50.1%49.9% DOWN
Low46.0%137 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentUP50.9%
UP 50.9%49.1% DOWN
Low48.2%137 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for XRP: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 09:20:00 UTC

09:20:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.5 bps0.9684ok
  • Coinbase+3.6 bps0.9688ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps0.9685ok
Median of 3 sources$0.9685

Settlement · 09:25:00 UTC

09:25:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps0.9682ok
  • Coinbase+0.6 bps0.9683ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−1.5 bps0.9681ok
Median of 3 sources$0.9682

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min XRP windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
09:15 → 09:20Nov 150.96980.9685DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN65.4%WIN
09:10 → 09:15Nov 150.96660.9698UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN67.1%LOSS
09:05 → 09:10Nov 150.96420.9666UP6 / 9 UPDOWN54.1%LOSS
09:00 → 09:05Nov 150.95660.9642UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.7%LOSS
08:55 → 09:00Nov 150.95300.9566UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN65.6%LOSS
08:50 → 08:55Nov 150.95070.9530UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.1%LOSS
08:45 → 08:50Nov 150.95100.9507DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.7%WIN
08:40 → 08:45Nov 150.94960.9510UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN65.7%LOSS
08:35 → 08:40Nov 150.95210.9496DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN69.0%WIN
08:30 → 08:35Nov 150.95530.9521DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.1%WIN
08:25 → 08:30Nov 150.95100.9553UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.0%LOSS
08:20 → 08:25Nov 150.94750.9510UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN65.3%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on XRP · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · XRP 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent51.1%137 mkts
  2. 2Volatility Agent52.6%137 mkts
  3. 3Whale Flow Agent48.2%137 mkts
  4. 4OI/Funding Agent46.0%137 mkts
  5. 5Trend Agent50.4%137 mkts
  6. 6Mean Reversion Agent48.2%137 mkts

About this market

XRP · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology