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PROBORA

Market record

XRP Up or Down · 5 Min

09:40 → 09:45 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled09:40 → 09:45 UTC

Market ID xrp-5m-20261115-0940

Settled

Nov 15, 09:45:00 UTC

Price to beat

$0.9659
Index at 09:40:00

Final index

$0.9657

Settlement price

$0.9657
Index at 09:45:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
0.96300.96410.96520.966309:4009:4109:4209:4309:45PTB 0.9659

Settlement $0.9657

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN61.9%High
UP 38.1%61.9% DOWN
Historical accuracy
49.7%
143 markets
Model version
meta-xrp5-v1
published 09:40:04 UTC

Base consensus

6 / 9 DOWN

66.7% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 09:40:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN60.1%
UP 39.9%60.1% DOWN
Medium51.7%143 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN58.3%
UP 41.7%58.3% DOWN
Medium51.0%143 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN55.4%
UP 44.6%55.4% DOWN
Medium49.7%143 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN51.6%
UP 48.4%51.6% DOWN
Medium51.7%143 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentUP51.4%
UP 51.4%48.6% DOWN
Low46.2%143 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentDOWN55.0%
UP 45.0%55.0% DOWN
Medium52.4%143 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentDOWN51.9%
UP 48.1%51.9% DOWN
Low52.4%143 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentUP50.1%
UP 50.1%49.9% DOWN
Low44.8%143 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentUP51.4%
UP 51.4%48.6% DOWN
Low49.0%143 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for XRP: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 09:40:00 UTC

09:40:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.5 bps0.9658ok
  • Coinbase+2.2 bps0.9661ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps0.9659ok
Median of 3 sources$0.9659

Settlement · 09:45:00 UTC

09:45:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps0.9657ok
  • Coinbase+1.7 bps0.9659ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−2.6 bps0.9655ok
Median of 3 sources$0.9657

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min XRP windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
09:35 → 09:40Nov 150.96560.9659UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN65.2%LOSS
09:30 → 09:35Nov 150.96960.9656DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.1%WIN
09:25 → 09:30Nov 15——VOID—Insufficient Data
09:20 → 09:25Nov 150.96850.9682DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN71.3%WIN
09:15 → 09:20Nov 150.96980.9685DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN65.4%WIN
09:10 → 09:15Nov 150.96660.9698UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN67.1%LOSS
09:05 → 09:10Nov 150.96420.9666UP6 / 9 UPDOWN54.1%LOSS
09:00 → 09:05Nov 150.95660.9642UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.7%LOSS
08:55 → 09:00Nov 150.95300.9566UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN65.6%LOSS
08:50 → 08:55Nov 150.95070.9530UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.1%LOSS
08:45 → 08:50Nov 150.95100.9507DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.7%WIN
08:40 → 08:45Nov 150.94960.9510UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN65.7%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on XRP · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · XRP 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent52.4%143 mkts
  2. 2Volatility Agent52.4%143 mkts
  3. 3Whale Flow Agent49.0%143 mkts
  4. 4Trend Agent51.7%143 mkts
  5. 5RSI Divergence Agent51.7%143 mkts
  6. 6Mean Reversion Agent49.7%143 mkts

About this market

XRP · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology