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PROBORA

Market record

XRP Up or Down · 5 Min

10:00 → 10:05 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled10:00 → 10:05 UTC

Market ID xrp-5m-20261115-1000

Settled

Nov 15, 10:05:00 UTC

Price to beat

$0.9630
Index at 10:00:00

Final index

$0.9646

Settlement price

$0.9646
Index at 10:05:00

Outcome

UP
Immutable record
0.96260.96390.96520.966510:0010:0110:0210:0310:05PTB 0.9630

Settlement $0.9646

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
DOWN61.6%High
UP 38.4%61.6% DOWN
Historical accuracy
49.7%
149 markets
Model version
meta-xrp5-v1
published 10:00:12 UTC

Base consensus

8 / 9 DOWN

88.9% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 10:00:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN54.8%
UP 45.2%54.8% DOWN
Medium51.0%149 marketsLOSS
Momentum AgentDOWN56.7%
UP 43.3%56.7% DOWN
Medium51.0%149 marketsLOSS
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN55.7%
UP 44.3%55.7% DOWN
Medium49.7%149 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN54.0%
UP 46.0%54.0% DOWN
Medium51.7%149 marketsLOSS
Order Flow AgentDOWN51.7%
UP 48.3%51.7% DOWN
Low46.3%149 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentDOWN54.6%
UP 45.4%54.6% DOWN
Medium52.3%149 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentDOWN52.2%
UP 47.8%52.2% DOWN
Low53.0%149 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentUP50.1%
UP 50.1%49.9% DOWN
Low45.0%149 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentDOWN51.9%
UP 48.1%51.9% DOWN
Low47.7%149 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for XRP: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 10:00:00 UTC

10:00:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−1.6 bps0.9628ok
  • Coinbase+1.3 bps0.9631ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps0.9630ok
Median of 3 sources$0.9630

Settlement · 10:05:00 UTC

10:05:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.5 bps0.9645ok
  • Coinbase+0.3 bps0.9646ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps0.9646ok
Median of 3 sources$0.9646

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min XRP windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
09:55 → 10:00Nov 150.96340.9630DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.0%WIN
09:50 → 09:55Nov 150.96210.9634UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN65.1%LOSS
09:45 → 09:50Nov 150.96570.9621DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN62.3%WIN
09:40 → 09:45Nov 150.96590.9657DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.9%WIN
09:35 → 09:40Nov 150.96560.9659UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN65.2%LOSS
09:30 → 09:35Nov 150.96960.9656DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.1%WIN
09:25 → 09:30Nov 15——VOID—Insufficient Data
09:20 → 09:25Nov 150.96850.9682DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN71.3%WIN
09:15 → 09:20Nov 150.96980.9685DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN65.4%WIN
09:10 → 09:15Nov 150.96660.9698UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN67.1%LOSS
09:05 → 09:10Nov 150.96420.9666UP6 / 9 UPDOWN54.1%LOSS
09:00 → 09:05Nov 150.95660.9642UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.7%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on XRP · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · XRP 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent53.0%149 mkts
  2. 2Volatility Agent52.3%149 mkts
  3. 3Trend Agent51.0%149 mkts
  4. 4Whale Flow Agent47.7%149 mkts
  5. 5RSI Divergence Agent51.7%149 mkts
  6. 6Order Flow Agent46.3%149 mkts

About this market

XRP · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology