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PROBORA

Market record

XRP Up or Down · 5 Min

10:05 → 10:10 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled10:05 → 10:10 UTC

Market ID xrp-5m-20261115-1005

Settled

Nov 15, 10:10:00 UTC

Price to beat

$0.9646
Index at 10:05:00

Final index

$0.9675

Settlement price

$0.9675
Index at 10:10:00

Outcome

UP
Immutable record
0.96560.96660.967510:0510:0610:0710:0810:10PTB 0.9646

Settlement $0.9675

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
DOWN64.7%High
UP 35.3%64.7% DOWN
Historical accuracy
50.0%
150 markets
Model version
meta-xrp5-v1
published 10:05:04 UTC

Base consensus

6 / 9 DOWN

66.7% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 10:05:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN53.5%
UP 46.5%53.5% DOWN
Medium51.3%150 marketsLOSS
Momentum AgentDOWN55.9%
UP 44.1%55.9% DOWN
Medium51.3%150 marketsLOSS
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN55.5%
UP 44.5%55.5% DOWN
Medium49.3%150 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN57.1%
UP 42.9%57.1% DOWN
Medium52.0%150 marketsLOSS
Order Flow AgentUP51.7%
UP 51.7%48.3% DOWN
Low46.0%150 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentDOWN57.6%
UP 42.4%57.6% DOWN
Medium52.7%150 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentDOWN52.2%
UP 47.8%52.2% DOWN
Low52.7%150 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentUP50.1%
UP 50.1%49.9% DOWN
Low44.7%150 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentUP50.4%
UP 50.4%49.6% DOWN
Low48.0%150 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for XRP: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 10:05:00 UTC

10:05:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.5 bps0.9645ok
  • Coinbase+0.3 bps0.9646ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps0.9646ok
Median of 3 sources$0.9646

Settlement · 10:10:00 UTC

10:10:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps0.9675ok
  • Coinbase+1.9 bps0.9677ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.5 bps0.9675ok
Median of 3 sources$0.9675

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min XRP windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
10:00 → 10:05Nov 150.96300.9646UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.6%LOSS
09:55 → 10:00Nov 150.96340.9630DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.0%WIN
09:50 → 09:55Nov 150.96210.9634UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN65.1%LOSS
09:45 → 09:50Nov 150.96570.9621DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN62.3%WIN
09:40 → 09:45Nov 150.96590.9657DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.9%WIN
09:35 → 09:40Nov 150.96560.9659UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN65.2%LOSS
09:30 → 09:35Nov 150.96960.9656DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.1%WIN
09:25 → 09:30Nov 15——VOID—Insufficient Data
09:20 → 09:25Nov 150.96850.9682DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN71.3%WIN
09:15 → 09:20Nov 150.96980.9685DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN65.4%WIN
09:10 → 09:15Nov 150.96660.9698UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN67.1%LOSS
09:05 → 09:10Nov 150.96420.9666UP6 / 9 UPDOWN54.1%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on XRP · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · XRP 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent52.7%150 mkts
  2. 2Volatility Agent52.7%150 mkts
  3. 3Trend Agent51.3%150 mkts
  4. 4Whale Flow Agent48.0%150 mkts
  5. 5RSI Divergence Agent52.0%150 mkts
  6. 6Momentum Agent51.3%150 mkts

About this market

XRP · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology