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PROBORA

Market record

XRP Up or Down · 5 Min

11:15 → 11:20 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled11:15 → 11:20 UTC

Market ID xrp-5m-20261115-1115

Settled

Nov 15, 11:20:00 UTC

Price to beat

$0.9617
Index at 11:15:00

Final index

$0.9636

Settlement price

$0.9636
Index at 11:20:00

Outcome

UP
Immutable record
0.96240.96290.963511:1511:1611:1711:1811:20PTB 0.9617

Settlement $0.9636

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
DOWN51.7%Low
UP 48.3%51.7% DOWN
Historical accuracy
50.8%
177 markets
Model version
meta-xrp5-v1
published 11:15:06 UTC

Base consensus

6 / 9 DOWN

66.7% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 11:15:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN53.4%
UP 46.6%53.4% DOWN
Medium53.7%177 marketsLOSS
Momentum AgentDOWN51.7%
UP 48.3%51.7% DOWN
Medium50.3%177 marketsLOSS
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN55.3%
UP 44.7%55.3% DOWN
Medium50.3%177 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN53.1%
UP 46.9%53.1% DOWN
Medium53.1%177 marketsLOSS
Order Flow AgentDOWN51.4%
UP 48.6%51.4% DOWN
Low45.2%177 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentUP51.4%
UP 51.4%48.6% DOWN
Medium52.5%177 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentUP50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low53.1%177 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentUP50.2%
UP 50.2%49.8% DOWN
Low44.1%177 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentDOWN52.5%
UP 47.5%52.5% DOWN
Low48.6%177 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for XRP: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 11:15:00 UTC

11:15:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.5 bps0.9617ok
  • Coinbase+3.7 bps0.9621ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps0.9617ok
Median of 3 sources$0.9617

Settlement · 11:20:00 UTC

11:20:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+0.3 bps0.9636ok
  • Coinbase——error
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.3 bps0.9636ok
Median of 2 sources$0.9636

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min XRP windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
11:10 → 11:15Nov 150.96190.9617DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.5%WIN
11:05 → 11:10Nov 150.96380.9619DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN67.1%WIN
11:00 → 11:05Nov 15——VOID—Insufficient Data
10:55 → 11:00Nov 150.96280.9649UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.2%LOSS
10:50 → 10:55Nov 150.96290.9628DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN65.6%WIN
10:45 → 10:50Nov 150.96340.9629DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.0%WIN
10:40 → 10:45Nov 150.96270.9634UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.7%LOSS
10:35 → 10:40Nov 150.96240.9627UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.2%LOSS
10:30 → 10:35Nov 150.96200.9624UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.3%LOSS
10:25 → 10:30Nov 150.96290.9620DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.8%WIN
10:20 → 10:25Nov 150.96450.9629DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.2%WIN
10:15 → 10:20Nov 150.96790.9645DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.8%WIN

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on XRP · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · XRP 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent53.1%177 mkts
  2. 2Volatility Agent52.5%177 mkts
  3. 3Trend Agent53.7%177 mkts
  4. 4Whale Flow Agent48.6%177 mkts
  5. 5RSI Divergence Agent53.1%177 mkts
  6. 6Mean Reversion Agent50.3%177 mkts

About this market

XRP · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology