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PROBORA

Market record

XRP Up or Down · 5 Min

12:10 → 12:15 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled12:10 → 12:15 UTC

Market ID xrp-5m-20261115-1210

Settled

Nov 15, 12:15:00 UTC

Price to beat

$0.9646
Index at 12:10:00

Final index

$0.9649

Settlement price

$0.9649
Index at 12:15:00

Outcome

UP
Immutable record
0.96440.96490.96540.965912:1012:1112:1212:1312:15PTB 0.9646

Settlement $0.9649

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
DOWN56.2%Medium
UP 43.8%56.2% DOWN
Historical accuracy
50.3%
197 markets
Model version
meta-xrp5-v1
published 12:10:04 UTC

Base consensus

7 / 9 DOWN

77.8% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 12:10:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN51.8%
UP 48.2%51.8% DOWN
Medium53.3%197 marketsLOSS
Momentum AgentDOWN54.2%
UP 45.8%54.2% DOWN
Medium50.8%197 marketsLOSS
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN53.0%
UP 47.0%53.0% DOWN
Medium49.7%197 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN51.7%
UP 48.3%51.7% DOWN
Medium52.3%197 marketsLOSS
Order Flow AgentDOWN50.6%
UP 49.4%50.6% DOWN
Low45.7%197 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentDOWN53.9%
UP 46.1%53.9% DOWN
Medium51.8%197 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentDOWN52.2%
UP 47.8%52.2% DOWN
Low52.8%197 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentUP50.3%
UP 50.3%49.7% DOWN
Low45.7%197 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentUP50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low48.7%197 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for XRP: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 12:10:00 UTC

12:10:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−2.6 bps0.9644ok
  • Coinbase+3.8 bps0.9650ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps0.9646ok
Median of 3 sources$0.9646

Settlement · 12:15:00 UTC

12:15:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps0.9649ok
  • Coinbase+5.4 bps0.9654ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.5 bps0.9648ok
Median of 3 sources$0.9649

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min XRP windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
12:05 → 12:10Nov 150.96080.9646UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.2%LOSS
12:00 → 12:05Nov 150.96230.9608DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.4%WIN
11:55 → 12:00Nov 150.96510.9623DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.1%WIN
11:50 → 11:55Nov 150.96640.9651DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.1%WIN
11:45 → 11:50Nov 150.96730.9664DOWN5 / 9 UPDOWN54.4%WIN
11:40 → 11:45Nov 150.96730.9673FLAT6 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.4%PUSH
11:35 → 11:40Nov 150.96550.9673UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.2%LOSS
11:30 → 11:35Nov 150.96440.9655UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.9%LOSS
11:25 → 11:30Nov 150.96350.9644UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.4%LOSS
11:20 → 11:25Nov 150.96360.9635DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.0%WIN
11:15 → 11:20Nov 150.96170.9636UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.7%LOSS
11:10 → 11:15Nov 150.96190.9617DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.5%WIN

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on XRP · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · XRP 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent52.8%197 mkts
  2. 2Volatility Agent51.8%197 mkts
  3. 3Trend Agent53.3%197 mkts
  4. 4Whale Flow Agent48.7%197 mkts
  5. 5RSI Divergence Agent52.3%197 mkts
  6. 6OI/Funding Agent45.7%197 mkts

About this market

XRP · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology