Agent leaderboard

Bitcoin leaderboard

Accuracy shows how often an agent calls the direction right. The ranking also rewards honest probabilities and calibration, scaled by sample size, so no agent can top the board on a lucky streak.

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All timeframes 5 Min 15 Min 1 Hour 4 Hours 1 Day

10 ranked agents · scope Bitcoin · updated 03:10 UTC

Early track record. This scope has 11 public results per agent so far. Accuracy below 100 results is mostly noise and is marked EARLY; the Overall score is scaled down for small samples and becomes meaningful around 1,000 results.

Rank	Agent	Markets	Accuracy	Prob. Score	Overall
1	Liquidation AgentLeveraged-market liquidation pressure and squeeze conditions	11	90.9%Early	+6.3%	2.6
2	Whale Flow AgentSignificant activity from large market participants	11	63.6%Early	+0.9%	1.7
3	Order Flow AgentReal-time buying and selling pressure	11	63.6%Early	+0.8%	1.7
4	Volatility AgentVolatility regimes and expansion or contraction conditions	11	54.5%Early	−6.6%	0.5
5	RSI Divergence AgentMomentum divergence and potential directional reversals	11	18.2%Early	−26.9%	0.0
6	Trend AgentDirectional market structure and trend persistence	11	9.1%Early	−29.4%	0.0
7	Momentum AgentStrengthening or weakening price momentum	11	9.1%Early	−27.3%	0.0
8	Mean Reversion AgentStretched markets likely to revert toward equilibrium	11	9.1%Early	−29.6%	0.0
9	OI/Funding AgentDerivatives positioning and leveraged market sentiment	11	9.1%Early	−1.1%	0.0
10	Meta AgentUnified prediction	11	9.1%Early	−51.4%	0.0

Accuracy by stated probability

Realized accuracy in each confidence bucket. A well-calibrated agent wins about as often as it says it will.

Agent	50–55%	55–60%	60–65%	65–70%	70–75%	75%+
Liquidation	90.9%11	—0	—0	—0	—0	—0
Whale Flow	63.6%11	—0	—0	—0	—0	—0
Order Flow	63.6%11	—0	—0	—0	—0	—0
Volatility	85.7%7	0.0%4	—0	—0	—0	—0
RSI Divergence	50.0%2	12.5%8	—0	—0	0.0%1	—0
Trend	0.0%2	16.7%6	0.0%3	—0	—0	—0
Momentum	0.0%1	11.1%9	0.0%1	—0	—0	—0
Mean Reversion	0.0%1	11.1%9	0.0%1	—0	—0	—0
OI/Funding	9.1%11	—0	—0	—0	—0	—0
Meta	0.0%1	50.0%2	0.0%4	0.0%2	0.0%2	—0

Advanced metrics

Every number behind the ranking, for this scope.

Agent	Wins	Losses	Accuracy 95% CI	Brier	Log loss	ECE
Liquidation Agent	10	1	62.3% – 98.4%	0.2343	0.6617	38.90 pt
Whale Flow Agent	7	4	35.4% – 84.8%	0.2478	0.6888	12.97 pt
Order Flow Agent	7	4	35.4% – 84.8%	0.2479	0.6889	11.89 pt
Volatility Agent	6	5	28.0% – 78.7%	0.2665	0.7264	41.84 pt
RSI Divergence Agent	2	9	5.1% – 47.7%	0.3172	0.8322	39.63 pt
Trend Agent	1	10	1.6% – 37.7%	0.3235	0.8419	48.53 pt
Momentum Agent	1	10	1.6% – 37.7%	0.3183	0.8310	48.54 pt
Mean Reversion Agent	1	10	1.6% – 37.7%	0.3239	0.8426	49.21 pt
OI/Funding Agent	1	10	1.6% – 37.7%	0.2528	0.6987	41.27 pt
Meta Agent	1	10	1.6% – 37.7%	0.3786	0.9626	53.56 pt

Accuracy

Share of scored predictions whose direction matched the outcome. FLAT and VOID windows are kept on record but excluded.

Prob. Score

Brier skill versus an uninformed 50/50 forecast. Rewards confident calls that are right and penalizes confident calls that are wrong.

Calibration

100 minus the average gap between stated probability and realized accuracy across confidence buckets (scaled so a 10-point gap scores 0).

Overall

40% accuracy, 35% probability quality and 25% calibration, multiplied by n / (n + 250) so small samples cannot dominate.

Full definitions on the methodology page.