Agent leaderboard

Ethereum leaderboard

Accuracy shows how often an agent calls the direction right. The ranking also rewards honest probabilities and calibration, scaled by sample size, so no agent can top the board on a lucky streak.

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10 ranked agents · scope Ethereum · updated 03:05 UTC

Early track record. This scope has 11 public results per agent so far. Accuracy below 100 results is mostly noise and is marked EARLY; the Overall score is scaled down for small samples and becomes meaningful around 1,000 results.

Rank	Agent	Markets	Accuracy	Prob. Score	Calibration	Overall
1	Liquidation AgentLeveraged-market liquidation pressure and squeeze conditions	11	81.8%Early	+5.0%	0.0	2.4
2	OI/Funding AgentDerivatives positioning and leveraged market sentiment	11	63.6%Early	−0.1%	0.0	1.5
3	Order Flow AgentReal-time buying and selling pressure	11	54.5%Early	−0.8%	74.8	1.3
4	Whale Flow AgentSignificant activity from large market participants	11	54.5%Early	+0.4%	67.7	1.3
5	Volatility AgentVolatility regimes and expansion or contraction conditions	11	54.5%Early	−1.0%	71.6	1.3
6	Momentum AgentStrengthening or weakening price momentum	11	45.5%Early	−2.7%	27.0	0.3
7	Trend AgentDirectional market structure and trend persistence	11	18.2%Early	−19.1%	0.0	0.0
8	Mean Reversion AgentStretched markets likely to revert toward equilibrium	11	18.2%Early	−22.8%	0.0	0.0
9	RSI Divergence AgentMomentum divergence and potential directional reversals	11	18.2%Early	−14.0%	0.0	0.0
10	Meta AgentUnified prediction	11	18.2%Early	−27.4%	0.0	0.0

Accuracy by stated probability

Realized accuracy in each confidence bucket. A well-calibrated agent wins about as often as it says it will.

Agent	50–55%	55–60%	60–65%	65–70%	70–75%	75%+
Liquidation	81.8%11	—0	—0	—0	—0	—0
OI/Funding	63.6%11	—0	—0	—0	—0	—0
Order Flow	54.5%11	—0	—0	—0	—0	—0
Whale Flow	54.5%11	—0	—0	—0	—0	—0
Volatility	54.5%11	—0	—0	—0	—0	—0
Momentum	45.5%11	—0	—0	—0	—0	—0
Trend	28.6%7	0.0%2	0.0%1	0.0%1	—0	—0
Mean Reversion	0.0%1	22.2%9	0.0%1	—0	—0	—0
RSI Divergence	28.6%7	0.0%4	—0	—0	—0	—0
Meta	0.0%1	33.3%6	0.0%4	—0	—0	—0

Advanced metrics

Every number behind the ranking, for this scope.

Agent	Wins	Losses	Accuracy 95% CI	Brier	Log loss	ECE
Liquidation Agent	9	2	52.3% – 94.9%	0.2375	0.6681	29.87 pt
OI/Funding Agent	7	4	35.4% – 84.8%	0.2502	0.6936	13.54 pt
Order Flow Agent	6	5	28.0% – 78.7%	0.2519	0.6970	2.52 pt
Whale Flow Agent	6	5	28.0% – 78.7%	0.2489	0.6910	3.23 pt
Volatility Agent	6	5	28.0% – 78.7%	0.2525	0.6982	2.84 pt
Momentum Agent	5	6	21.3% – 72.0%	0.2568	0.7067	7.30 pt
Trend Agent	2	9	5.1% – 47.7%	0.2977	0.7917	36.74 pt
Mean Reversion Agent	2	9	5.1% – 47.7%	0.3071	0.8085	39.81 pt
RSI Divergence Agent	2	9	5.1% – 47.7%	0.2849	0.7632	36.37 pt
Meta Agent	2	9	5.1% – 47.7%	0.3184	0.8323	40.90 pt

Accuracy

Share of scored predictions whose direction matched the outcome. FLAT and VOID windows are kept on record but excluded.

Prob. Score

Brier skill versus an uninformed 50/50 forecast. Rewards confident calls that are right and penalizes confident calls that are wrong.

Calibration

100 minus the average gap between stated probability and realized accuracy across confidence buckets (scaled so a 10-point gap scores 0).

Overall

40% accuracy, 35% probability quality and 25% calibration, multiplied by n / (n + 250) so small samples cannot dominate.

Full definitions on the methodology page.