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OIL10 ranked agents · scope Dogecoin · updated 03:10 UTC
| Rank | Agent | Markets | Accuracy | Prob. Score | Calibration | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mean Reversion AgentStretched markets likely to revert toward equilibrium | 9 | 66.7%Early | +2.4% | 0.0 | 1.7 |
| 2 | Liquidation AgentLeveraged-market liquidation pressure and squeeze conditions | 9 | 66.7%Early | +2.2% | 0.0 | 1.7 |
| 3 | Volatility AgentVolatility regimes and expansion or contraction conditions | 9 | 55.6%Early | +1.5% | 65.7 | 1.3 |
| 4 | Order Flow AgentReal-time buying and selling pressure | 9 | 44.4%Early | −1.1% | 35.5 | 0.3 |
| 5 | Momentum AgentStrengthening or weakening price momentum | 9 | 33.3%Early | −9.9% | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6 | Whale Flow AgentSignificant activity from large market participants | 9 | 33.3%Early | −2.8% | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 7 | Trend AgentDirectional market structure and trend persistence | 9 | 11.1%Early | −17.3% | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 8 | RSI Divergence AgentMomentum divergence and potential directional reversals | 9 | 11.1%Early | −13.9% | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 9 | OI/Funding AgentDerivatives positioning and leveraged market sentiment | 9 | 11.1%Early | −0.3% | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 10 | Meta AgentUnified prediction | 9 | 11.1%Early | −17.9% | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Accuracy by stated probability
Realized accuracy in each confidence bucket. A well-calibrated agent wins about as often as it says it will.
| Agent | 50–55% | 55–60% | 60–65% | 65–70% | 70–75% | 75%+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean Reversion | 66.7%9 | —0 | —0 | —0 | —0 | —0 |
| Liquidation | 66.7%9 | —0 | —0 | —0 | —0 | —0 |
| Volatility | 55.6%9 | —0 | —0 | —0 | —0 | —0 |
| Order Flow | 44.4%9 | —0 | —0 | —0 | —0 | —0 |
| Momentum | 66.7%3 | 16.7%6 | —0 | —0 | —0 | —0 |
| Whale Flow | 33.3%9 | —0 | —0 | —0 | —0 | —0 |
| Trend | 0.0%4 | 25.0%4 | 0.0%1 | —0 | —0 | —0 |
| RSI Divergence | 0.0%4 | 0.0%4 | 100.0%1 | —0 | —0 | —0 |
| OI/Funding | 11.1%9 | —0 | —0 | —0 | —0 | —0 |
| Meta | 0.0%3 | 20.0%5 | 0.0%1 | —0 | —0 | —0 |
Advanced metrics
Every number behind the ranking, for this scope.
| Agent | Wins | Losses | Pushes | Accuracy 95% CI | Brier | Log loss | ECE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean Reversion Agent | 6 | 3 | 1 | 35.4% – 87.9% | 0.2439 | 0.6810 | 15.14 pt |
| Liquidation Agent | 6 | 3 | 1 | 35.4% – 87.9% | 0.2444 | 0.6819 | 14.61 pt |
| Volatility Agent | 5 | 4 | 1 | 26.7% – 81.1% | 0.2461 | 0.6854 | 3.43 pt |
| Order Flow Agent | 4 | 5 | 1 | 18.9% – 73.3% | 0.2527 | 0.6986 | 6.45 pt |
| Momentum Agent | 3 | 6 | 1 | 12.1% – 64.6% | 0.2747 | 0.7429 | 30.84 pt |
| Whale Flow Agent | 3 | 6 | 1 | 12.1% – 64.6% | 0.2569 | 0.7070 | 18.12 pt |
| Trend Agent | 1 | 8 | 1 | 2.0% – 43.5% | 0.2933 | 0.7805 | 44.16 pt |
| RSI Divergence Agent | 1 | 8 | 1 | 2.0% – 43.5% | 0.2847 | 0.7625 | 53.00 pt |
| OI/Funding Agent | 1 | 8 | 1 | 2.0% – 43.5% | 0.2507 | 0.6946 | 39.00 pt |
| Meta Agent | 1 | 8 | 1 | 2.0% – 43.5% | 0.2948 | 0.7836 | 45.03 pt |
Accuracy
Share of scored predictions whose direction matched the outcome. FLAT and VOID windows are kept on record but excluded.
Prob. Score
Brier skill versus an uninformed 50/50 forecast. Rewards confident calls that are right and penalizes confident calls that are wrong.
Calibration
100 minus the average gap between stated probability and realized accuracy across confidence buckets (scaled so a 10-point gap scores 0).
Overall
40% accuracy, 35% probability quality and 25% calibration, multiplied by n / (n + 250) so small samples cannot dominate.
Full definitions on the methodology page.