Agent leaderboard

SOL · 15 Min leaderboard

Accuracy shows how often an agent calls the direction right. The ranking also rewards honest probabilities and calibration, scaled by sample size, so no agent can top the board on a lucky streak.

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10 ranked agents · scope SOL · 15 Min · updated 03:00 UTC

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Early track record. This scope has 2 public results per agent so far. Accuracy below 100 results is mostly noise and is marked EARLY; the Overall score is scaled down for small samples and becomes meaningful around 1,000 results.

Rank	Agent	Markets	Accuracy	Prob. Score	Calibration	Overall
1	Mean Reversion AgentStretched markets likely to revert toward equilibrium	2	100.0%Early	+12.8%	0.0	0.6
2	Liquidation AgentLeveraged-market liquidation pressure and squeeze conditions	2	100.0%Early	+7.4%	0.0	0.5
3	Momentum AgentStrengthening or weakening price momentum	2	100.0%Early	+5.5%	0.0	0.5
4	OI/Funding AgentDerivatives positioning and leveraged market sentiment	2	100.0%Early	+1.5%	0.0	0.4
5	Order Flow AgentReal-time buying and selling pressure	2	50.0%Early	+3.6%	75.8	0.2
6	Whale Flow AgentSignificant activity from large market participants	2	50.0%Early	−0.1%	81.4	0.2
7	Trend AgentDirectional market structure and trend persistence	2	0.0%Early	−46.4%	0.0	0.0
8	RSI Divergence AgentMomentum divergence and potential directional reversals	2	0.0%Early	−22.0%	0.0	0.0
9	Volatility AgentVolatility regimes and expansion or contraction conditions	2	0.0%Early	−8.6%	0.0	0.0
10	Meta AgentUnified prediction	2	0.0%Early	−10.0%	0.0	0.0

Accuracy by stated probability

Realized accuracy in each confidence bucket. A well-calibrated agent wins about as often as it says it will.

Agent	50–55%	55–60%	60–65%	65–70%	70–75%	75%+
Mean Reversion	100.0%2	—0	—0	—0	—0	—0
Liquidation	100.0%2	—0	—0	—0	—0	—0
Momentum	100.0%2	—0	—0	—0	—0	—0
OI/Funding	100.0%2	—0	—0	—0	—0	—0
Order Flow	50.0%2	—0	—0	—0	—0	—0
Whale Flow	50.0%2	—0	—0	—0	—0	—0
Trend	—0	0.0%1	0.0%1	—0	—0	—0
RSI Divergence	0.0%1	0.0%1	—0	—0	—0	—0
Volatility	0.0%2	—0	—0	—0	—0	—0
Meta	0.0%2	—0	—0	—0	—0	—0

Advanced metrics

Every number behind the ranking, for this scope.

Agent	Wins	Losses	Accuracy 95% CI	Brier	Log loss	ECE
Mean Reversion Agent	2	0	34.2% – 100.0%	0.2180	0.6290	46.68 pt
Liquidation Agent	2	0	34.2% – 100.0%	0.2316	0.6563	48.12 pt
Momentum Agent	2	0	34.2% – 100.0%	0.2363	0.6658	48.61 pt
OI/Funding Agent	2	0	34.2% – 100.0%	0.2463	0.6858	49.63 pt
Order Flow Agent	1	1	9.5% – 90.5%	0.2411	0.6752	2.42 pt
Whale Flow Agent	1	1	9.5% – 90.5%	0.2501	0.6934	1.86 pt
Trend Agent	0	2	0.0% – 65.8%	0.3661	0.9308	60.37 pt
RSI Divergence Agent	0	2	0.0% – 65.8%	0.3051	0.8039	55.18 pt
Volatility Agent	0	2	0.0% – 65.8%	0.2716	0.7364	52.09 pt
Meta Agent	0	2	0.0% – 65.8%	0.2749	0.7430	52.42 pt

Accuracy

Share of scored predictions whose direction matched the outcome. FLAT and VOID windows are kept on record but excluded.

Prob. Score

Brier skill versus an uninformed 50/50 forecast. Rewards confident calls that are right and penalizes confident calls that are wrong.

Calibration

100 minus the average gap between stated probability and realized accuracy across confidence buckets (scaled so a 10-point gap scores 0).

Overall

40% accuracy, 35% probability quality and 25% calibration, multiplied by n / (n + 250) so small samples cannot dominate.

Full definitions on the methodology page.