Skip to content
PROBORA

Market record

ETH Up or Down · 15 Min

04:30 → 04:45 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Live04:30 → 04:45 UTC

Market ID eth-15m-20261115-0430

Settles in

08:49

Price to beat

$1,817.82
Index at 04:30:00

Current index

$1,818.39
+0.57(0.031%)

Settlement price

—
Fixed at settlement

Outcome

Pending
Resolves at 04:45:00
1,817.021,818.561,820.091,821.6304:3004:3304:3704:4104:45PTB 1,817.82
Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialists
DOWN51.5%Low
UP 48.5%51.5% DOWN
Historical accuracy
37.5%
8 markets
Model version
meta-eth15-v1
published 04:30:06 UTC

Base consensus

8 / 9 DOWN

88.9% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

Previous windowNext window

Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 04:30:00 UTC with their model versions. Results appear the moment the window settles.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracy
Trend AgentDOWN50.9%
UP 49.1%50.9% DOWN
Medium25.0%8 markets
Momentum AgentDOWN51.6%
UP 48.4%51.6% DOWN
Medium50.0%8 markets
Mean Reversion AgentUP50.3%
UP 50.3%49.7% DOWN
Medium50.0%8 markets
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN52.4%
UP 47.6%52.4% DOWN
Medium50.0%8 markets
Order Flow AgentDOWN53.2%
UP 46.8%53.2% DOWN
Low50.0%8 markets
Volatility AgentDOWN51.9%
UP 48.1%51.9% DOWN
Medium75.0%8 markets
Liquidation AgentDOWN52.2%
UP 47.8%52.2% DOWN
Low75.0%8 markets
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low62.5%8 markets
Whale Flow AgentDOWN52.0%
UP 48.0%52.0% DOWN
Low62.5%8 markets

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for ETH: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 04:30:00 UTC

04:30:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps1,817.82ok
  • Coinbase−0.1 bps1,817.80ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+0.5 bps1,817.91ok
Median of 3 sources$1,817.82

Current index

04:36:09 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+0.1 bps1,818.40ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.6 bps1,818.29ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps1,818.39ok
Median of 3 sources$1,818.39

Recent resolved markets

The latest 15 Min ETH windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
04:15 → 04:30Nov 151,819.791,817.82DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.3%WIN
04:00 → 04:15Nov 151,817.761,819.79UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.1%LOSS
03:45 → 04:00Nov 151,824.951,817.76DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.0%WIN
03:30 → 03:45Nov 151,819.851,824.95UP6 / 9 UPDOWN51.4%LOSS
03:15 → 03:30Nov 151,822.181,819.85DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN62.0%WIN
03:00 → 03:15Nov 151,815.031,822.18UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.6%LOSS
02:45 → 03:00Nov 151,810.471,815.03UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.7%LOSS
02:30 → 02:45Nov 151,802.861,810.47UP6 / 9 UPDOWN61.2%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on ETH · 15 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · ETH 15 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent75.0%8 mkts
  2. 2Volatility Agent75.0%8 mkts
  3. 3Whale Flow Agent62.5%8 mkts
  4. 4OI/Funding Agent62.5%8 mkts
  5. 5Order Flow Agent50.0%8 mkts
  6. 6Momentum Agent50.0%8 mkts

About this market

Ethereum · 15 Minute windows

Fifteen-minute windows sit between micro-structure and intraday trend. Flow and positioning signals still dominate, but trend and volatility context starts to carry real information.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, derivatives positioning and momentum shifts.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology