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PROBORA

Market record

NEAR Up or Down · 5 Min

11:45 → 11:50 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled11:45 → 11:50 UTC

Market ID near-5m-20261115-1145

Settled

Nov 15, 11:50:00 UTC

Price to beat

$3.196
Index at 11:45:00

Final index

$3.184

Settlement price

$3.184
Index at 11:50:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
3.1843.1883.19211:4511:4611:4711:4811:50PTB 3.196

Settlement $3.184

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
UP51.2%Medium
UP 51.2%48.8% DOWN
Historical accuracy
50.4%
121 markets
Model version
meta-near5-v1
published 11:45:05 UTC

Base consensus

6 / 9 UP

66.7% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 11:45:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN55.5%
UP 44.5%55.5% DOWN
Medium44.6%121 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentUP50.4%
UP 50.4%49.6% DOWN
Medium52.1%121 marketsLOSS
Mean Reversion AgentUP51.4%
UP 51.4%48.6% DOWN
Medium43.0%121 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentUP51.1%
UP 51.1%48.9% DOWN
Medium52.1%121 marketsLOSS
Order Flow AgentDOWN50.1%
UP 49.9%50.1% DOWN
Low57.0%121 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentUP51.3%
UP 51.3%48.7% DOWN
Medium46.3%121 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentUP52.2%
UP 52.2%47.8% DOWN
Low46.3%121 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.3%
UP 49.7%50.3% DOWN
Low52.1%121 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentUP50.4%
UP 50.4%49.6% DOWN
Low56.2%121 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for NEAR: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 11:45:00 UTC

11:45:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps3.196ok
  • Coinbase+7.9 bps3.199ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−1.6 bps3.196ok
Median of 3 sources$3.196

Settlement · 11:50:00 UTC

11:50:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.8 bps3.183ok
  • Coinbase——error
  • OKXUSDT→USD+0.8 bps3.184ok
Median of 2 sources$3.184

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min NEAR windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
11:40 → 11:45Nov 153.2003.196DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.7%WIN
11:35 → 11:40Nov 153.1903.200UP6 / 9 UPUP54.0%WIN
11:30 → 11:35Nov 153.1873.190UP5 / 9 UPDOWN57.1%LOSS
11:25 → 11:30Nov 153.1833.187UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.5%LOSS
11:20 → 11:25Nov 153.1853.183DOWN8 / 9 UPUP50.9%LOSS
11:15 → 11:20Nov 153.1773.185UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.9%LOSS
11:10 → 11:15Nov 153.1733.177UP5 / 9 DOWNUP55.4%WIN
11:05 → 11:10Nov 153.1733.173FLAT5 / 9 UPUP50.9%PUSH
11:00 → 11:05Nov 15——VOID—Insufficient Data
10:55 → 11:00Nov 153.1833.182DOWN7 / 9 UPUP54.2%LOSS
10:50 → 10:55Nov 153.1763.183UP5 / 9 UPUP51.7%WIN
10:45 → 10:50Nov 153.1753.176UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.5%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on NEAR · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · NEAR 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Order Flow Agent57.0%121 mkts
  2. 2Whale Flow Agent56.2%121 mkts
  3. 3RSI Divergence Agent52.1%121 mkts
  4. 4OI/Funding Agent52.1%121 mkts
  5. 5Momentum Agent52.1%121 mkts
  6. 6Liquidation Agent46.3%121 mkts

About this market

NEAR Protocol · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology