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PROBORA

Market record

NEAR Up or Down · 5 Min

12:15 → 12:20 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled12:15 → 12:20 UTC

Market ID near-5m-20261115-1215

Settled

Nov 15, 12:20:00 UTC

Price to beat

$3.186
Index at 12:15:00

Final index

$3.195

Settlement price

$3.195
Index at 12:20:00

Outcome

UP
Immutable record
3.1813.1933.19912:1512:1612:1712:1812:20PTB 3.186

Settlement $3.195

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
DOWN52.7%Low
UP 47.3%52.7% DOWN
Historical accuracy
52.3%
130 markets
Model version
meta-near5-v1
published 12:15:07 UTC

Base consensus

6 / 9 DOWN

66.7% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 12:15:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentUP50.5%
UP 50.5%49.5% DOWN
Medium46.2%130 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN54.2%
UP 45.8%54.2% DOWN
Medium53.1%130 marketsLOSS
Mean Reversion AgentUP50.1%
UP 50.1%49.9% DOWN
Medium46.9%130 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentUP50.6%
UP 50.6%49.4% DOWN
Medium51.5%130 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentDOWN51.6%
UP 48.4%51.6% DOWN
Low55.4%130 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentDOWN51.6%
UP 48.4%51.6% DOWN
Medium46.9%130 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentDOWN52.2%
UP 47.8%52.2% DOWN
Low43.8%130 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.3%
UP 49.7%50.3% DOWN
Low54.6%130 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentDOWN50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low54.6%130 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for NEAR: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 12:15:00 UTC

12:15:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−1.6 bps3.186ok
  • Coinbase+18.5 bps3.192ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps3.186ok
Median of 3 sources$3.186

Settlement · 12:20:00 UTC

12:20:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+1.6 bps3.196ok
  • Coinbase−1.3 bps3.195ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps3.195ok
Median of 3 sources$3.195

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min NEAR windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
12:10 → 12:15Nov 153.1813.186UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN50.3%LOSS
12:05 → 12:10Nov 153.1653.181UP5 / 9 UPUP59.9%WIN
12:00 → 12:05Nov 153.1683.165DOWN5 / 9 UPUP56.8%LOSS
11:55 → 12:00Nov 153.1813.168DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.4%WIN
11:50 → 11:55Nov 153.1843.181DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.1%WIN
11:45 → 11:50Nov 153.1963.184DOWN6 / 9 UPUP51.2%LOSS
11:40 → 11:45Nov 153.2003.196DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.7%WIN
11:35 → 11:40Nov 153.1903.200UP6 / 9 UPUP54.0%WIN
11:30 → 11:35Nov 153.1873.190UP5 / 9 UPDOWN57.1%LOSS
11:25 → 11:30Nov 153.1833.187UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.5%LOSS
11:20 → 11:25Nov 153.1853.183DOWN8 / 9 UPUP50.9%LOSS
11:15 → 11:20Nov 153.1773.185UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.9%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on NEAR · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · NEAR 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Order Flow Agent55.4%130 mkts
  2. 2Whale Flow Agent54.6%130 mkts
  3. 3OI/Funding Agent54.6%130 mkts
  4. 4RSI Divergence Agent51.5%130 mkts
  5. 5Momentum Agent53.1%130 mkts
  6. 6Meta Agent52.3%130 mkts

About this market

NEAR Protocol · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology