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PROBORA

Market record

XRP Up or Down · 15 Min

04:30 → 04:45 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Live04:30 → 04:45 UTC

Market ID xrp-15m-20261115-0430

Settles in

08:33

Price to beat

$0.9755
Index at 04:30:00

Current index

$0.9765
+0.0010(0.103%)

Settlement price

—
Fixed at settlement

Outcome

Pending
Resolves at 04:45:00
0.97500.97620.97730.978504:3004:3304:3704:4104:45PTB 0.9755
Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialists
UP54.8%Low
UP 54.8%45.2% DOWN
Historical accuracy
25.0%
8 markets
Model version
meta-xrp15-v1
published 04:30:07 UTC

Base consensus

5 / 9 DOWN

55.6% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 04:30:00 UTC with their model versions. Results appear the moment the window settles.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracy
Trend AgentDOWN54.0%
UP 46.0%54.0% DOWN
Medium12.5%8 markets
Momentum AgentUP53.0%
UP 53.0%47.0% DOWN
Medium50.0%8 markets
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN53.2%
UP 46.8%53.2% DOWN
Medium12.5%8 markets
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN52.7%
UP 47.3%52.7% DOWN
Medium37.5%8 markets
Order Flow AgentDOWN51.1%
UP 48.9%51.1% DOWN
Low62.5%8 markets
Volatility AgentUP58.7%
UP 58.7%41.3% DOWN
Medium25.0%8 markets
Liquidation AgentUP52.2%
UP 52.2%47.8% DOWN
Low87.5%8 markets
OI/Funding AgentUP50.1%
UP 50.1%49.9% DOWN
Low62.5%8 markets
Whale Flow AgentDOWN50.7%
UP 49.3%50.7% DOWN
Low50.0%8 markets

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for XRP: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 04:30:00 UTC

04:30:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.5 bps0.9755ok
  • Coinbase+1.7 bps0.9757ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps0.9755ok
Median of 3 sources$0.9755

Current index

04:36:25 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps0.9765ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−1.5 bps0.9764ok
  • Coinbase+2.8 bps0.9768ok
Median of 3 sources$0.9765

Recent resolved markets

The latest 15 Min XRP windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
04:15 → 04:30Nov 150.97200.9755UP6 / 9 UPUP65.5%WIN
04:00 → 04:15Nov 150.96660.9720UP6 / 9 UPDOWN50.0%LOSS
03:45 → 04:00Nov 150.96720.9666DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.3%WIN
03:30 → 03:45Nov 150.96230.9672UP5 / 9 UPDOWN52.9%LOSS
03:15 → 03:30Nov 150.96180.9623UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.5%LOSS
03:00 → 03:15Nov 150.95390.9618UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.8%LOSS
02:45 → 03:00Nov 150.95060.9539UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.9%LOSS
02:30 → 02:45Nov 150.94420.9506UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.8%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on XRP · 15 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · XRP 15 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent87.5%8 mkts
  2. 2OI/Funding Agent62.5%8 mkts
  3. 3Order Flow Agent62.5%8 mkts
  4. 4Whale Flow Agent50.0%8 mkts
  5. 5Momentum Agent50.0%8 mkts
  6. 6Volatility Agent25.0%8 mkts

About this market

XRP · 15 Minute windows

Fifteen-minute windows sit between micro-structure and intraday trend. Flow and positioning signals still dominate, but trend and volatility context starts to carry real information.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, derivatives positioning and momentum shifts.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology