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PROBORA

Market record

XRP Up or Down · 5 Min

12:55 → 13:00 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled12:55 → 13:00 UTC

Market ID xrp-5m-20261115-1255

Settled

Nov 15, 13:00:00 UTC

Price to beat

$0.9690
Index at 12:55:00

Final index

$0.9676

Settlement price

$0.9676
Index at 13:00:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
0.96700.96790.96870.969612:5512:5612:5712:5813:00PTB 0.9690

Settlement $0.9676

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN55.4%Medium
UP 44.6%55.4% DOWN
Historical accuracy
49.8%
213 markets
Model version
meta-xrp5-v1
published 12:55:04 UTC

Base consensus

6 / 9 DOWN

66.7% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 12:55:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN53.4%
UP 46.6%53.4% DOWN
Medium52.6%213 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN52.3%
UP 47.7%52.3% DOWN
Medium48.8%213 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentUP50.4%
UP 50.4%49.6% DOWN
Medium48.8%213 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN52.2%
UP 47.8%52.2% DOWN
Medium51.6%213 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentDOWN52.3%
UP 47.7%52.3% DOWN
Low47.9%213 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentDOWN55.9%
UP 44.1%55.9% DOWN
Medium51.2%213 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentUP52.2%
UP 52.2%47.8% DOWN
Low53.5%213 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentUP50.3%
UP 50.3%49.7% DOWN
Low46.5%213 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentDOWN51.1%
UP 48.9%51.1% DOWN
Low48.8%213 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for XRP: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 12:55:00 UTC

12:55:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps0.9690ok
  • Coinbase+3.4 bps0.9693ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.5 bps0.9689ok
Median of 3 sources$0.9690

Settlement · 13:00:00 UTC

13:00:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.5 bps0.9676ok
  • Coinbase+1.9 bps0.9678ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps0.9676ok
Median of 3 sources$0.9676

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min XRP windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
12:50 → 12:55Nov 150.96780.9690UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.1%LOSS
12:45 → 12:50Nov 150.96950.9678DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.7%WIN
12:40 → 12:45Nov 150.96820.9695UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.6%LOSS
12:35 → 12:40Nov 150.97120.9682DOWN6 / 9 UPUP53.1%LOSS
12:30 → 12:35Nov 150.97030.9712UP7 / 9 UPDOWN50.7%LOSS
12:25 → 12:30Nov 150.96840.9703UP6 / 9 UPDOWN51.8%LOSS
12:20 → 12:25Nov 150.96700.9684UP5 / 9 UPDOWN52.1%LOSS
12:15 → 12:20Nov 150.96490.9670UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.2%LOSS
12:10 → 12:15Nov 150.96460.9649UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.2%LOSS
12:05 → 12:10Nov 150.96080.9646UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.2%LOSS
12:00 → 12:05Nov 150.96230.9608DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.4%WIN
11:55 → 12:00Nov 150.96510.9623DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.1%WIN

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on XRP · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · XRP 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent53.5%213 mkts
  2. 2Trend Agent52.6%213 mkts
  3. 3Whale Flow Agent48.8%213 mkts
  4. 4Volatility Agent51.2%213 mkts
  5. 5Order Flow Agent47.9%213 mkts
  6. 6OI/Funding Agent46.5%213 mkts

About this market

XRP · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology