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PROBORA

Market record

XRP Up or Down · 5 Min

13:30 → 13:35 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled13:30 → 13:35 UTC

Market ID xrp-5m-20261115-1330

Settled

Nov 15, 13:35:00 UTC

Price to beat

$0.9749
Index at 13:30:00

Final index

$0.9738

Settlement price

$0.9738
Index at 13:35:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
0.97210.97310.974013:3013:3113:3213:3313:35PTB 0.9749

Settlement $0.9738

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN51.8%Low
UP 48.2%51.8% DOWN
Historical accuracy
49.3%
225 markets
Model version
meta-xrp5-v1
published 13:30:07 UTC

Base consensus

6 / 9 DOWN

66.7% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 13:30:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN55.1%
UP 44.9%55.1% DOWN
Medium51.6%225 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN56.2%
UP 43.8%56.2% DOWN
Medium48.9%225 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN50.4%
UP 49.6%50.4% DOWN
Medium47.6%225 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN56.3%
UP 43.7%56.3% DOWN
Medium51.6%225 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentUP50.6%
UP 50.6%49.4% DOWN
Low48.0%225 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentDOWN51.9%
UP 48.1%51.9% DOWN
Medium50.7%225 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentUP52.2%
UP 52.2%47.8% DOWN
Low52.4%225 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentUP50.5%
UP 50.5%49.5% DOWN
Low47.6%225 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentDOWN51.6%
UP 48.4%51.6% DOWN
Low48.9%225 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for XRP: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 13:30:00 UTC

13:30:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−1.5 bps0.9748ok
  • Coinbase+2.8 bps0.9752ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps0.9749ok
Median of 3 sources$0.9749

Settlement · 13:35:00 UTC

13:35:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps0.9738ok
  • Coinbase+1.3 bps0.9739ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−2.6 bps0.9735ok
Median of 3 sources$0.9738

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min XRP windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
13:25 → 13:30Nov 150.97720.9749DOWN5 / 9 UPUP50.7%LOSS
13:20 → 13:25Nov 150.97290.9772UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.7%LOSS
13:15 → 13:20Nov 150.97200.9729UP5 / 9 UPDOWN51.9%LOSS
13:10 → 13:15Nov 150.97220.9720DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.1%WIN
13:05 → 13:10Nov 150.96980.9722UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.8%LOSS
13:00 → 13:05Nov 150.96760.9698UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.6%LOSS
12:55 → 13:00Nov 150.96900.9676DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.4%WIN
12:50 → 12:55Nov 150.96780.9690UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.1%LOSS
12:45 → 12:50Nov 150.96950.9678DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.7%WIN
12:40 → 12:45Nov 150.96820.9695UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.6%LOSS
12:35 → 12:40Nov 150.97120.9682DOWN6 / 9 UPUP53.1%LOSS
12:30 → 12:35Nov 150.97030.9712UP7 / 9 UPDOWN50.7%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on XRP · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · XRP 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent52.4%225 mkts
  2. 2Whale Flow Agent48.9%225 mkts
  3. 3Trend Agent51.6%225 mkts
  4. 4OI/Funding Agent47.6%225 mkts
  5. 5Order Flow Agent48.0%225 mkts
  6. 6Volatility Agent50.7%225 mkts

About this market

XRP · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology