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PROBORA

Market record

XRP Up or Down · 5 Min

14:00 → 14:05 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled14:00 → 14:05 UTC

Market ID xrp-5m-20261115-1400

Settled

Nov 15, 14:05:00 UTC

Price to beat

$0.9689
Index at 14:00:00

Final index

$0.9656

Settlement price

$0.9656
Index at 14:05:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
0.96490.96620.967514:0014:0114:0214:0314:05PTB 0.9689

Settlement $0.9656

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN61.4%High
UP 38.6%61.4% DOWN
Historical accuracy
49.4%
235 markets
Model version
meta-xrp5-v1
published 14:00:10 UTC

Base consensus

7 / 9 DOWN

77.8% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 14:00:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN58.9%
UP 41.1%58.9% DOWN
Medium50.2%235 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN59.7%
UP 40.3%59.7% DOWN
Medium48.1%235 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN56.7%
UP 43.3%56.7% DOWN
Medium46.8%235 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN55.6%
UP 44.4%55.6% DOWN
Medium50.6%235 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentDOWN51.5%
UP 48.5%51.5% DOWN
Low46.8%235 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentDOWN58.5%
UP 41.5%58.5% DOWN
Medium48.9%235 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentUP50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low52.8%235 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentUP50.3%
UP 50.3%49.7% DOWN
Low48.1%235 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentDOWN51.5%
UP 48.5%51.5% DOWN
Low48.1%235 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for XRP: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 14:00:00 UTC

14:00:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−1.5 bps0.9687ok
  • Coinbase+1.5 bps0.9690ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps0.9689ok
Median of 3 sources$0.9689

Settlement · 14:05:00 UTC

14:05:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.5 bps0.9655ok
  • Coinbase+0.1 bps0.9656ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps0.9656ok
Median of 3 sources$0.9656

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min XRP windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
13:55 → 14:00Nov 150.97160.9689DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.1%WIN
13:50 → 13:55Nov 150.97130.9716UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.7%LOSS
13:45 → 13:50Nov 150.97180.9713DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.3%WIN
13:40 → 13:45Nov 150.97100.9718UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.8%LOSS
13:35 → 13:40Nov 150.97380.9710DOWN7 / 9 UPUP50.6%LOSS
13:30 → 13:35Nov 150.97490.9738DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.8%WIN
13:25 → 13:30Nov 150.97720.9749DOWN5 / 9 UPUP50.7%LOSS
13:20 → 13:25Nov 150.97290.9772UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.7%LOSS
13:15 → 13:20Nov 150.97200.9729UP5 / 9 UPDOWN51.9%LOSS
13:10 → 13:15Nov 150.97220.9720DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.1%WIN
13:05 → 13:10Nov 150.96980.9722UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.8%LOSS
13:00 → 13:05Nov 150.96760.9698UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.6%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on XRP · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · XRP 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent52.8%235 mkts
  2. 2OI/Funding Agent48.1%235 mkts
  3. 3Whale Flow Agent48.1%235 mkts
  4. 4Trend Agent50.2%235 mkts
  5. 5Order Flow Agent46.8%235 mkts
  6. 6RSI Divergence Agent50.6%235 mkts

About this market

XRP · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology