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PROBORA

Market record

XRP Up or Down · 5 Min

13:45 → 13:50 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled13:45 → 13:50 UTC

Market ID xrp-5m-20261115-1345

Settled

Nov 15, 13:50:00 UTC

Price to beat

$0.9718
Index at 13:45:00

Final index

$0.9713

Settlement price

$0.9713
Index at 13:50:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
0.96890.96980.970813:4513:4613:4713:4813:50PTB 0.9718

Settlement $0.9713

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN55.3%Medium
UP 44.7%55.3% DOWN
Historical accuracy
49.1%
230 markets
Model version
meta-xrp5-v1
published 13:45:06 UTC

Base consensus

6 / 9 DOWN

66.7% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 13:45:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN55.2%
UP 44.8%55.2% DOWN
Medium50.9%230 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN52.2%
UP 47.8%52.2% DOWN
Medium48.3%230 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN55.3%
UP 44.7%55.3% DOWN
Medium47.4%230 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN52.1%
UP 47.9%52.1% DOWN
Medium50.9%230 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentDOWN50.6%
UP 49.4%50.6% DOWN
Low47.4%230 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentDOWN57.2%
UP 42.8%57.2% DOWN
Medium49.6%230 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentUP52.2%
UP 52.2%47.8% DOWN
Low52.2%230 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentUP50.3%
UP 50.3%49.7% DOWN
Low47.4%230 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentUP50.3%
UP 50.3%49.7% DOWN
Low48.7%230 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for XRP: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 13:45:00 UTC

13:45:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.5 bps0.9718ok
  • Coinbase+1.6 bps0.9720ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps0.9718ok
Median of 3 sources$0.9718

Settlement · 13:50:00 UTC

13:50:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−1.5 bps0.9712ok
  • Coinbase+2.6 bps0.9716ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps0.9713ok
Median of 3 sources$0.9713

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min XRP windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
13:40 → 13:45Nov 150.97100.9718UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.8%LOSS
13:35 → 13:40Nov 150.97380.9710DOWN7 / 9 UPUP50.6%LOSS
13:30 → 13:35Nov 150.97490.9738DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.8%WIN
13:25 → 13:30Nov 150.97720.9749DOWN5 / 9 UPUP50.7%LOSS
13:20 → 13:25Nov 150.97290.9772UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.7%LOSS
13:15 → 13:20Nov 150.97200.9729UP5 / 9 UPDOWN51.9%LOSS
13:10 → 13:15Nov 150.97220.9720DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.1%WIN
13:05 → 13:10Nov 150.96980.9722UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.8%LOSS
13:00 → 13:05Nov 150.96760.9698UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.6%LOSS
12:55 → 13:00Nov 150.96900.9676DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.4%WIN
12:50 → 12:55Nov 150.96780.9690UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.1%LOSS
12:45 → 12:50Nov 150.96950.9678DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.7%WIN

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on XRP · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · XRP 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent52.2%230 mkts
  2. 2Whale Flow Agent48.7%230 mkts
  3. 3Trend Agent50.9%230 mkts
  4. 4OI/Funding Agent47.4%230 mkts
  5. 5Order Flow Agent47.4%230 mkts
  6. 6RSI Divergence Agent50.9%230 mkts

About this market

XRP · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology