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PROBORA

Market record

XRP Up or Down · 5 Min

14:25 → 14:30 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled14:25 → 14:30 UTC

Market ID xrp-5m-20261115-1425

Settled

Nov 15, 14:30:00 UTC

Price to beat

$0.9660
Index at 14:25:00

Final index

$0.9609

Settlement price

$0.9609
Index at 14:30:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
0.96020.96220.964114:2514:2614:2714:2814:30PTB 0.9660

Settlement $0.9609

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN60.5%High
UP 39.5%60.5% DOWN
Historical accuracy
49.4%
245 markets
Model version
meta-xrp5-v1
published 14:25:04 UTC

Base consensus

8 / 9 DOWN

88.9% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 14:25:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN54.6%
UP 45.4%54.6% DOWN
Medium50.6%245 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN62.7%
UP 37.3%62.7% DOWN
Medium48.6%245 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN51.6%
UP 48.4%51.6% DOWN
Medium47.3%245 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN57.7%
UP 42.3%57.7% DOWN
Medium51.0%245 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentDOWN50.8%
UP 49.2%50.8% DOWN
Low46.9%245 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentDOWN55.8%
UP 44.2%55.8% DOWN
Medium48.6%245 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentDOWN52.2%
UP 47.8%52.2% DOWN
Low52.2%245 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentUP50.3%
UP 50.3%49.7% DOWN
Low48.2%245 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentDOWN52.2%
UP 47.8%52.2% DOWN
Low49.4%245 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for XRP: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 14:25:00 UTC

14:25:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.5 bps0.9659ok
  • Coinbase+1.2 bps0.9661ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps0.9660ok
Median of 3 sources$0.9660

Settlement · 14:30:00 UTC

14:30:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps0.9609ok
  • Coinbase+1.5 bps0.9610ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−3.6 bps0.9605ok
Median of 3 sources$0.9609

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min XRP windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
14:20 → 14:25Nov 150.96880.9660DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.8%WIN
14:15 → 14:20Nov 150.96620.9688UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.4%LOSS
14:10 → 14:15Nov 150.96400.9662UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.3%LOSS
14:05 → 14:10Nov 150.96560.9640DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.7%WIN
14:00 → 14:05Nov 150.96890.9656DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.4%WIN
13:55 → 14:00Nov 150.97160.9689DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.1%WIN
13:50 → 13:55Nov 150.97130.9716UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.7%LOSS
13:45 → 13:50Nov 150.97180.9713DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.3%WIN
13:40 → 13:45Nov 150.97100.9718UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.8%LOSS
13:35 → 13:40Nov 150.97380.9710DOWN7 / 9 UPUP50.6%LOSS
13:30 → 13:35Nov 150.97490.9738DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.8%WIN
13:25 → 13:30Nov 150.97720.9749DOWN5 / 9 UPUP50.7%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on XRP · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · XRP 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent52.2%245 mkts
  2. 2Whale Flow Agent49.4%245 mkts
  3. 3OI/Funding Agent48.2%245 mkts
  4. 4Trend Agent50.6%245 mkts
  5. 5Order Flow Agent46.9%245 mkts
  6. 6RSI Divergence Agent51.0%245 mkts

About this market

XRP · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology