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PROBORA

Market record

BNB Up or Down · 15 Min

03:45 → 04:00 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled03:45 → 04:00 UTC

Market ID bnb-15m-20261115-0345

Settled

Nov 15, 04:00:00 UTC

Price to beat

$595.35
Index at 03:45:00

Final index

$593.95

Settlement price

$593.95
Index at 04:00:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
593.33594.07594.81595.5503:4503:4803:5203:5604:00PTB 595.35

Settlement $593.95

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN54.9%Medium
UP 45.1%54.9% DOWN
Historical accuracy
33.3%
6 markets
Model version
meta-bnb15-v1
published 03:45:05 UTC

Base consensus

5 / 9 DOWN

55.6% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 03:45:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN54.4%
UP 45.6%54.4% DOWN
Medium33.3%6 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentUP50.5%
UP 50.5%49.5% DOWN
Medium33.3%6 marketsLOSS
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN52.9%
UP 47.1%52.9% DOWN
Medium33.3%6 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN51.1%
UP 48.9%51.1% DOWN
Medium33.3%6 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentUP51.0%
UP 51.0%49.0% DOWN
Low50.0%6 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentDOWN51.0%
UP 49.0%51.0% DOWN
Medium83.3%6 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentUP50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low66.7%6 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low66.7%6 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentUP51.9%
UP 51.9%48.1% DOWN
Low33.3%6 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for BNB: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 03:45:00 UTC

03:45:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.9 bps595.30ok
  • BybitUSDT→USD+1.8 bps595.46ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps595.35ok
Median of 3 sources$595.35

Settlement · 04:00:00 UTC

04:00:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps593.95ok
  • BybitUSDT→USD−0.3 bps593.93ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+1.8 bps594.05ok
Median of 3 sources$593.95

Recent resolved markets

The latest 15 Min BNB windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
03:30 → 03:45Nov 15594.13595.35UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.3%LOSS
03:15 → 03:30Nov 15596.05594.13DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN63.0%WIN
03:00 → 03:15Nov 15593.61596.05UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.7%LOSS
02:45 → 03:00Nov 15591.03593.61UP5 / 9 UPDOWN59.3%LOSS
02:30 → 02:45Nov 15588.32591.03UP6 / 9 UPDOWN59.5%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on BNB · 15 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · BNB 15 Min

View all →
  1. 1Volatility Agent83.3%6 mkts
  2. 2Liquidation Agent66.7%6 mkts
  3. 3OI/Funding Agent66.7%6 mkts
  4. 4Order Flow Agent50.0%6 mkts
  5. 5Momentum Agent33.3%6 mkts
  6. 6Trend Agent33.3%6 mkts

About this market

BNB · 15 Minute windows

Fifteen-minute windows sit between micro-structure and intraday trend. Flow and positioning signals still dominate, but trend and volatility context starts to carry real information.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, derivatives positioning and momentum shifts.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology