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PROBORA

Market record

DOGE Up or Down · 5 Min

10:15 → 10:20 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled10:15 → 10:20 UTC

Market ID doge-5m-20261115-1015

Settled

Nov 15, 10:20:00 UTC

Price to beat

$0.05911
Index at 10:15:00

Final index

$0.05898

Settlement price

$0.05898
Index at 10:20:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
0.058920.058990.0590510:1510:1610:1710:1810:20PTB 0.05911

Settlement $0.05898

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN53.0%Low
UP 47.0%53.0% DOWN
Historical accuracy
47.3%
150 markets
Model version
meta-doge5-v1
published 10:15:07 UTC

Base consensus

5 / 9 DOWN

55.6% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 10:15:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentUP50.1%
UP 50.1%49.9% DOWN
Medium46.0%150 marketsLOSS
Momentum AgentDOWN56.9%
UP 43.1%56.9% DOWN
Medium47.3%150 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN50.2%
UP 49.8%50.2% DOWN
Medium51.3%150 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN53.6%
UP 46.4%53.6% DOWN
Medium50.0%150 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentDOWN50.7%
UP 49.3%50.7% DOWN
Low52.7%150 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentUP53.7%
UP 53.7%46.3% DOWN
Medium44.7%150 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentUP50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low54.0%150 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentUP50.2%
UP 50.2%49.8% DOWN
Low54.0%150 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentDOWN51.1%
UP 48.9%51.1% DOWN
Low50.7%150 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for DOGE: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 10:15:00 UTC

10:15:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−2.3 bps0.05910ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps0.05911ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+2.0 bps0.05912ok
Median of 3 sources$0.05911

Settlement · 10:20:00 UTC

10:20:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps0.05898ok
  • Coinbase+0.6 bps0.05898ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.8 bps0.05897ok
Median of 3 sources$0.05898

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min DOGE windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
10:10 → 10:15Nov 150.059030.05911UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.4%LOSS
10:05 → 10:10Nov 150.058820.05903UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.5%LOSS
10:00 → 10:05Nov 150.058620.05882UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.1%LOSS
09:55 → 10:00Nov 150.058720.05862DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.5%WIN
09:50 → 09:55Nov 150.058650.05872UP5 / 9 UPDOWN61.8%LOSS
09:45 → 09:50Nov 150.058790.05865DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.6%WIN
09:40 → 09:45Nov 150.058770.05879UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.9%LOSS
09:35 → 09:40Nov 150.058720.05877UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN65.2%LOSS
09:30 → 09:35Nov 150.058940.05872DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.2%WIN
09:25 → 09:30Nov 15——VOID—Insufficient Data
09:20 → 09:25Nov 150.058950.05886DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.8%WIN
09:15 → 09:20Nov 150.059040.05895DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.3%WIN

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on DOGE · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · DOGE 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent54.0%150 mkts
  2. 2Order Flow Agent52.7%150 mkts
  3. 3Whale Flow Agent50.7%150 mkts
  4. 4OI/Funding Agent54.0%150 mkts
  5. 5RSI Divergence Agent50.0%150 mkts
  6. 6Mean Reversion Agent51.3%150 mkts

About this market

Dogecoin · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology