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PROBORA

Market record

HYPE Up or Down · 5 Min

06:00 → 06:05 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled06:00 → 06:05 UTC

Market ID hype-5m-20261115-0600

Settled

Nov 15, 06:05:00 UTC

Price to beat

$65.522
Index at 06:00:00

Final index

$65.259

Settlement price

$65.259
Index at 06:05:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
65.25765.35265.44806:0006:0106:0206:0306:05PTB 65.522

Settlement $65.259

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN51.3%Low
UP 48.7%51.3% DOWN
Historical accuracy
52.8%
72 markets
Model version
meta-hype5-v1
published 06:00:11 UTC

Base consensus

6 / 9 DOWN

66.7% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 06:00:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentUP51.2%
UP 51.2%48.8% DOWN
Medium51.4%72 marketsLOSS
Momentum AgentDOWN54.2%
UP 45.8%54.2% DOWN
Medium62.5%72 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentUP56.4%
UP 56.4%43.6% DOWN
Medium54.2%72 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN52.6%
UP 47.4%52.6% DOWN
Medium51.4%72 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentDOWN51.4%
UP 48.6%51.4% DOWN
Low52.8%72 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentUP50.7%
UP 50.7%49.3% DOWN
Medium47.2%72 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentDOWN52.2%
UP 47.8%52.2% DOWN
Low50.0%72 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.2%
UP 49.8%50.2% DOWN
Low51.4%72 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentDOWN50.6%
UP 49.4%50.6% DOWN
Low43.1%72 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for HYPE: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 06:00:00 UTC

06:00:00 UTC
  • OKXUSDT→USD+3.8 bps65.547ok
  • BybitUSDT→USD0.0 bps65.522ok
  • Hyperliquid−3.5 bps65.499ok
Median of 3 sources$65.522

Settlement · 06:05:00 UTC

06:05:00 UTC
  • OKXUSDT→USD+1.7 bps65.270ok
  • BybitUSDT→USD0.0 bps65.259ok
  • Hyperliquid−5.4 bps65.224ok
Median of 3 sources$65.259

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min HYPE windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
05:55 → 06:00Nov 1565.81565.522DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.2%WIN
05:50 → 05:55Nov 1565.88265.815DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN62.7%WIN
05:45 → 05:50Nov 1565.98765.882DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN63.0%WIN
05:40 → 05:45Nov 1565.89765.987UP7 / 9 DOWNUP50.8%WIN
05:35 → 05:40Nov 1565.77365.897UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.5%LOSS
05:30 → 05:35Nov 1566.01265.773DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN63.4%WIN
05:25 → 05:30Nov 1566.12466.012DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN63.4%WIN
05:20 → 05:25Nov 1566.11166.124UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.4%LOSS
05:15 → 05:20Nov 1565.97966.111UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN69.7%LOSS
05:10 → 05:15Nov 1565.90165.979UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.7%LOSS
05:05 → 05:10Nov 1565.85065.901UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.8%LOSS
05:00 → 05:05Nov 1565.88865.850DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.2%WIN

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on HYPE · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · HYPE 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Momentum Agent62.5%72 mkts
  2. 2Order Flow Agent52.8%72 mkts
  3. 3OI/Funding Agent51.4%72 mkts
  4. 4RSI Divergence Agent51.4%72 mkts
  5. 5Liquidation Agent50.0%72 mkts
  6. 6Trend Agent51.4%72 mkts

About this market

Hyperliquid · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology