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PROBORA

Market record

HYPE Up or Down · 5 Min

08:10 → 08:15 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled08:10 → 08:15 UTC

Market ID hype-5m-20261115-0810

Settled

Nov 15, 08:15:00 UTC

Price to beat

$64.999
Index at 08:10:00

Final index

$64.757

Settlement price

$64.757
Index at 08:15:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
64.76664.84364.91908:1008:1108:1208:1308:15PTB 64.999

Settlement $64.757

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN51.4%Low
UP 48.6%51.4% DOWN
Historical accuracy
50.4%
115 markets
Model version
meta-hype5-v1
published 08:10:05 UTC

Base consensus

6 / 9 DOWN

66.7% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 08:10:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN56.2%
UP 43.8%56.2% DOWN
Medium48.7%115 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN52.9%
UP 47.1%52.9% DOWN
Medium57.4%115 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN54.5%
UP 45.5%54.5% DOWN
Medium50.4%115 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN54.3%
UP 45.7%54.3% DOWN
Medium47.8%115 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentUP50.4%
UP 50.4%49.6% DOWN
Low54.8%115 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentUP52.5%
UP 52.5%47.5% DOWN
Medium47.0%115 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentDOWN52.2%
UP 47.8%52.2% DOWN
Low50.4%115 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.2%
UP 49.8%50.2% DOWN
Low46.1%115 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentUP50.1%
UP 50.1%49.9% DOWN
Low48.7%115 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for HYPE: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 08:10:00 UTC

08:10:00 UTC
  • BybitUSDT→USD−3.7 bps64.975ok
  • Hyperliquid+2.2 bps65.014ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps64.999ok
Median of 3 sources$64.999

Settlement · 08:15:00 UTC

08:15:00 UTC
  • BybitUSDT→USD−0.2 bps64.755ok
  • Hyperliquid0.0 bps64.757ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+0.8 bps64.762ok
Median of 3 sources$64.757

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min HYPE windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
08:05 → 08:10Nov 1564.96064.999UP8 / 9 DOWNUP50.7%WIN
08:00 → 08:05Nov 1564.93664.960UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.9%LOSS
07:55 → 08:00Nov 1564.83164.936UP5 / 9 DOWNUP56.0%WIN
07:50 → 07:55Nov 1564.70564.831UP5 / 9 DOWNUP55.4%WIN
07:45 → 07:50Nov 1564.76364.705DOWN5 / 9 DOWNUP50.7%LOSS
07:40 → 07:45Nov 1565.12564.763DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.2%WIN
07:35 → 07:40Nov 1565.31765.125DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.7%WIN
07:30 → 07:35Nov 1565.41065.317DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN66.8%WIN
07:25 → 07:30Nov 1565.45465.410DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.8%WIN
07:20 → 07:25Nov 1565.38165.454UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.1%LOSS
07:15 → 07:20Nov 1565.22065.381UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.4%LOSS
07:10 → 07:15Nov 1565.43265.220DOWN6 / 9 DOWNUP52.4%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on HYPE · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · HYPE 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Order Flow Agent54.8%115 mkts
  2. 2Momentum Agent57.4%115 mkts
  3. 3Liquidation Agent50.4%115 mkts
  4. 4Whale Flow Agent48.7%115 mkts
  5. 5OI/Funding Agent46.1%115 mkts
  6. 6RSI Divergence Agent47.8%115 mkts

About this market

Hyperliquid · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology