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PROBORA

Market record

HYPE Up or Down · 5 Min

08:15 → 08:20 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled08:15 → 08:20 UTC

Market ID hype-5m-20261115-0815

Settled

Nov 15, 08:20:00 UTC

Price to beat

$64.757
Index at 08:15:00

Final index

$64.691

Settlement price

$64.691
Index at 08:20:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
64.66164.70864.80108:1508:1608:1708:1808:20PTB 64.757

Settlement $64.691

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN61.7%High
UP 38.3%61.7% DOWN
Historical accuracy
49.6%
117 markets
Model version
meta-hype5-v1
published 08:15:07 UTC

Base consensus

7 / 9 DOWN

77.8% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 08:15:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN54.1%
UP 45.9%54.1% DOWN
Medium49.6%117 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN56.6%
UP 43.4%56.6% DOWN
Medium56.4%117 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentUP51.9%
UP 51.9%48.1% DOWN
Medium51.3%117 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN54.0%
UP 46.0%54.0% DOWN
Medium47.0%117 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentDOWN50.3%
UP 49.7%50.3% DOWN
Low55.6%117 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentDOWN54.9%
UP 45.1%54.9% DOWN
Medium46.2%117 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentDOWN52.2%
UP 47.8%52.2% DOWN
Low49.6%117 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.2%
UP 49.8%50.2% DOWN
Low45.3%117 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentUP50.2%
UP 50.2%49.8% DOWN
Low49.6%117 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for HYPE: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 08:15:00 UTC

08:15:00 UTC
  • BybitUSDT→USD−0.2 bps64.755ok
  • Hyperliquid0.0 bps64.757ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+0.8 bps64.762ok
Median of 3 sources$64.757

Settlement · 08:20:00 UTC

08:20:00 UTC
  • BybitUSDT→USD−1.1 bps64.684ok
  • Hyperliquid+3.4 bps64.714ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps64.691ok
Median of 3 sources$64.691

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min HYPE windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
08:10 → 08:15Nov 1564.99964.757DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.4%WIN
08:05 → 08:10Nov 1564.96064.999UP8 / 9 DOWNUP50.7%WIN
08:00 → 08:05Nov 1564.93664.960UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.9%LOSS
07:55 → 08:00Nov 1564.83164.936UP5 / 9 DOWNUP56.0%WIN
07:50 → 07:55Nov 1564.70564.831UP5 / 9 DOWNUP55.4%WIN
07:45 → 07:50Nov 1564.76364.705DOWN5 / 9 DOWNUP50.7%LOSS
07:40 → 07:45Nov 1565.12564.763DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.2%WIN
07:35 → 07:40Nov 1565.31765.125DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.7%WIN
07:30 → 07:35Nov 1565.41065.317DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN66.8%WIN
07:25 → 07:30Nov 1565.45465.410DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.8%WIN
07:20 → 07:25Nov 1565.38165.454UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.1%LOSS
07:15 → 07:20Nov 1565.22065.381UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.4%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on HYPE · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · HYPE 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Order Flow Agent55.6%117 mkts
  2. 2Momentum Agent56.4%117 mkts
  3. 3Whale Flow Agent49.6%117 mkts
  4. 4Liquidation Agent49.6%117 mkts
  5. 5OI/Funding Agent45.3%117 mkts
  6. 6Mean Reversion Agent51.3%117 mkts

About this market

Hyperliquid · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology