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PROBORA

Market record

HYPE Up or Down · 5 Min

08:25 → 08:30 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled08:25 → 08:30 UTC

Market ID hype-5m-20261115-0825

Settled

Nov 15, 08:30:00 UTC

Price to beat

$65.070
Index at 08:25:00

Final index

$65.395

Settlement price

$65.395
Index at 08:30:00

Outcome

UP
Immutable record
65.03665.15665.27565.39508:2508:2608:2708:2808:30PTB 65.070

Settlement $65.395

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
DOWN50.4%Low
UP 49.6%50.4% DOWN
Historical accuracy
50.8%
120 markets
Model version
meta-hype5-v1
published 08:25:04 UTC

Base consensus

6 / 9 DOWN

66.7% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 08:25:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN54.6%
UP 45.4%54.6% DOWN
Medium49.2%120 marketsLOSS
Momentum AgentDOWN52.8%
UP 47.2%52.8% DOWN
Medium57.5%120 marketsLOSS
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN62.3%
UP 37.7%62.3% DOWN
Medium52.5%120 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN54.0%
UP 46.0%54.0% DOWN
Medium48.3%120 marketsLOSS
Order Flow AgentUP51.9%
UP 51.9%48.1% DOWN
Low55.0%120 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentUP54.1%
UP 54.1%45.9% DOWN
Medium47.5%120 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentUP50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low48.3%120 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.2%
UP 49.8%50.2% DOWN
Low46.7%120 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentDOWN50.6%
UP 49.4%50.6% DOWN
Low49.2%120 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for HYPE: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 08:25:00 UTC

08:25:00 UTC
  • BybitUSDT→USD0.0 bps65.070ok
  • Hyperliquid−8.8 bps65.013ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+3.4 bps65.092ok
Median of 3 sources$65.070

Settlement · 08:30:00 UTC

08:30:00 UTC
  • BybitUSDT→USD0.0 bps65.395ok
  • Hyperliquid−1.8 bps65.383ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+0.2 bps65.396ok
Median of 3 sources$65.395

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min HYPE windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
08:20 → 08:25Nov 1564.69165.070UP5 / 9 UPDOWN51.3%LOSS
08:15 → 08:20Nov 1564.75764.691DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.7%WIN
08:10 → 08:15Nov 1564.99964.757DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.4%WIN
08:05 → 08:10Nov 1564.96064.999UP8 / 9 DOWNUP50.7%WIN
08:00 → 08:05Nov 1564.93664.960UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.9%LOSS
07:55 → 08:00Nov 1564.83164.936UP5 / 9 DOWNUP56.0%WIN
07:50 → 07:55Nov 1564.70564.831UP5 / 9 DOWNUP55.4%WIN
07:45 → 07:50Nov 1564.76364.705DOWN5 / 9 DOWNUP50.7%LOSS
07:40 → 07:45Nov 1565.12564.763DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.2%WIN
07:35 → 07:40Nov 1565.31765.125DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.7%WIN
07:30 → 07:35Nov 1565.41065.317DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN66.8%WIN
07:25 → 07:30Nov 1565.45465.410DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.8%WIN

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on HYPE · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · HYPE 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Order Flow Agent55.0%120 mkts
  2. 2Momentum Agent57.5%120 mkts
  3. 3Whale Flow Agent49.2%120 mkts
  4. 4Liquidation Agent48.3%120 mkts
  5. 5OI/Funding Agent46.7%120 mkts
  6. 6Mean Reversion Agent52.5%120 mkts

About this market

Hyperliquid · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology