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PROBORA

Market record

XRP Up or Down · 5 Min

05:20 → 05:25 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled05:20 → 05:25 UTC

Market ID xrp-5m-20261115-0520

Settled

Nov 15, 05:25:00 UTC

Price to beat

$0.9731
Index at 05:20:00

Final index

$0.9704

Settlement price

$0.9704
Index at 05:25:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
0.96970.97090.972105:2005:2105:2205:2305:25PTB 0.9731

Settlement $0.9704

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN57.0%High
UP 43.0%57.0% DOWN
Historical accuracy
55.0%
60 markets
Model version
meta-xrp5-v1
published 05:20:05 UTC

Base consensus

6 / 9 DOWN

66.7% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 05:20:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN58.9%
UP 41.1%58.9% DOWN
Medium48.3%60 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN51.0%
UP 49.0%51.0% DOWN
Medium53.3%60 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN54.6%
UP 45.4%54.6% DOWN
Medium50.0%60 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN53.8%
UP 46.2%53.8% DOWN
Medium51.7%60 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentDOWN50.6%
UP 49.4%50.6% DOWN
Low45.0%60 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentDOWN50.1%
UP 49.9%50.1% DOWN
Medium51.7%60 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentUP50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low60.0%60 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentUP50.1%
UP 50.1%49.9% DOWN
Low36.7%60 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentUP51.4%
UP 51.4%48.6% DOWN
Low48.3%60 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for XRP: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 05:20:00 UTC

05:20:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−1.5 bps0.9730ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps0.9731ok
  • Coinbase+0.9 bps0.9732ok
Median of 3 sources$0.9731

Settlement · 05:25:00 UTC

05:25:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps0.9704ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.5 bps0.9704ok
  • Coinbase+1.6 bps0.9706ok
Median of 3 sources$0.9704

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min XRP windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
05:15 → 05:20Nov 150.97150.9731UP5 / 9 UPDOWN53.7%LOSS
05:10 → 05:15Nov 150.97130.9715UP5 / 9 UPDOWN54.0%LOSS
05:05 → 05:10Nov 150.97180.9713DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.0%WIN
05:00 → 05:05Nov 150.97230.9718DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN69.2%WIN
04:55 → 05:00Nov 150.97550.9723DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN63.0%WIN
04:50 → 04:55Nov 150.97720.9755DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.6%WIN
04:45 → 04:50Nov 150.97320.9772UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.8%LOSS
04:40 → 04:45Nov 150.97120.9732UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN62.6%LOSS
04:35 → 04:40Nov 150.97880.9712DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.2%WIN
04:30 → 04:35Nov 150.97550.9788UP6 / 9 DOWNUP53.9%WIN
04:25 → 04:30Nov 150.97180.9755UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN62.2%LOSS
04:20 → 04:25Nov 150.97100.9718UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.7%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on XRP · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · XRP 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent60.0%60 mkts
  2. 2Momentum Agent53.3%60 mkts
  3. 3Volatility Agent51.7%60 mkts
  4. 4Whale Flow Agent48.3%60 mkts
  5. 5RSI Divergence Agent51.7%60 mkts
  6. 6Meta Agent55.0%60 mkts

About this market

XRP · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology