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PROBORA

Market record

DOGE Up or Down · 5 Min

14:00 → 14:05 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled14:00 → 14:05 UTC

Market ID doge-5m-20261115-1400

Settled

Nov 15, 14:05:00 UTC

Price to beat

$0.05921
Index at 14:00:00

Final index

$0.05897

Settlement price

$0.05897
Index at 14:05:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
0.058960.059040.0591214:0014:0114:0214:0314:05PTB 0.05921

Settlement $0.05897

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN53.8%Low
UP 46.2%53.8% DOWN
Historical accuracy
46.8%
231 markets
Model version
meta-doge5-v1
published 14:00:10 UTC

Base consensus

7 / 9 DOWN

77.8% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 14:00:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN59.9%
UP 40.1%59.9% DOWN
Medium46.8%231 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN64.8%
UP 35.2%64.8% DOWN
High47.6%231 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN56.4%
UP 43.6%56.4% DOWN
Medium49.4%231 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN59.1%
UP 40.9%59.1% DOWN
Medium48.9%231 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentDOWN52.0%
UP 48.0%52.0% DOWN
Low51.1%231 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentDOWN54.7%
UP 45.3%54.7% DOWN
Medium45.5%231 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentUP50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low53.7%231 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentUP50.3%
UP 50.3%49.7% DOWN
Low51.1%231 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentDOWN52.4%
UP 47.6%52.4% DOWN
Low51.1%231 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for DOGE: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 14:00:00 UTC

14:00:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps0.05921ok
  • Coinbase+6.4 bps0.05925ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.8 bps0.05921ok
Median of 3 sources$0.05921

Settlement · 14:05:00 UTC

14:05:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+0.4 bps0.05897ok
  • Coinbase——error
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.4 bps0.05897ok
Median of 2 sources$0.05897

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min DOGE windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
13:55 → 14:00Nov 150.059390.05921DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.0%WIN
13:50 → 13:55Nov 150.059370.05939UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.7%LOSS
13:45 → 13:50Nov 150.059350.05937UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN50.2%LOSS
13:40 → 13:45Nov 150.059250.05935UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.5%LOSS
13:35 → 13:40Nov 150.059430.05925DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN50.5%WIN
13:30 → 13:35Nov 150.059480.05943DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.3%WIN
13:25 → 13:30Nov 150.059530.05948DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN50.3%WIN
13:20 → 13:25Nov 150.059410.05953UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.0%LOSS
13:15 → 13:20Nov 150.059360.05941UP5 / 9 DOWNUP50.1%WIN
13:10 → 13:15Nov 150.059320.05936UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.1%LOSS
13:05 → 13:10Nov 150.059290.05932UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.4%LOSS
13:00 → 13:05Nov 150.059320.05929DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.7%WIN

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on DOGE · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · DOGE 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent53.7%231 mkts
  2. 2OI/Funding Agent51.1%231 mkts
  3. 3Whale Flow Agent51.1%231 mkts
  4. 4Order Flow Agent51.1%231 mkts
  5. 5Mean Reversion Agent49.4%231 mkts
  6. 6RSI Divergence Agent48.9%231 mkts

About this market

Dogecoin · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology