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PROBORA

Market record

HYPE Up or Down · 5 Min

03:40 → 03:45 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled03:40 → 03:45 UTC

Market ID hype-5m-20261115-0340

Settled

Nov 15, 03:45:00 UTC

Price to beat

$65.939
Index at 03:40:00

Final index

$66.193

Settlement price

$66.193
Index at 03:45:00

Outcome

UP
Immutable record
65.84266.06866.18103:4003:4103:4203:4303:45PTB 65.939

Settlement $66.193

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
DOWN52.8%Low
UP 47.2%52.8% DOWN
Historical accuracy
40.0%
25 markets
Model version
meta-hype5-v1
published 03:40:04 UTC

Base consensus

5 / 9 DOWN

55.6% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 03:40:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN52.8%
UP 47.2%52.8% DOWN
Medium40.0%25 marketsLOSS
Momentum AgentUP50.7%
UP 50.7%49.3% DOWN
Medium44.0%25 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentUP52.3%
UP 52.3%47.7% DOWN
Medium52.0%25 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN53.1%
UP 46.9%53.1% DOWN
Medium44.0%25 marketsLOSS
Order Flow AgentDOWN51.1%
UP 48.9%51.1% DOWN
Low68.0%25 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentDOWN53.8%
UP 46.2%53.8% DOWN
Medium40.0%25 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentUP50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low60.0%25 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low44.0%25 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentUP50.9%
UP 50.9%49.1% DOWN
Low52.0%25 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for HYPE: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 03:40:00 UTC

03:40:00 UTC
  • BybitUSDT→USD0.0 bps65.939ok
  • Hyperliquid−1.6 bps65.929ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+0.9 bps65.945ok
Median of 3 sources$65.939

Settlement · 03:45:00 UTC

03:45:00 UTC
  • BybitUSDT→USD+0.4 bps66.195ok
  • Hyperliquid0.0 bps66.193ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.3 bps66.190ok
Median of 3 sources$66.193

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min HYPE windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
03:35 → 03:40Nov 1565.87465.939UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.1%LOSS
03:30 → 03:35Nov 1566.09565.874DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.6%WIN
03:25 → 03:30Nov 1566.31366.095DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN63.3%WIN
03:20 → 03:25Nov 1566.47966.313DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN68.6%WIN
03:15 → 03:20Nov 1566.26066.479UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN68.9%LOSS
03:10 → 03:15Nov 1566.21866.260UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN67.5%LOSS
03:05 → 03:10Nov 1566.14766.218UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN63.6%LOSS
03:00 → 03:05Nov 1566.09666.147UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN71.3%LOSS
02:55 → 03:00Nov 1566.05966.096UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN67.5%LOSS
02:50 → 02:55Nov 1565.79566.059UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN66.0%LOSS
02:45 → 02:50Nov 1565.97065.795DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN68.5%WIN
02:40 → 02:45Nov 1566.17165.970DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.8%WIN

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on HYPE · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · HYPE 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Order Flow Agent68.0%25 mkts
  2. 2Liquidation Agent60.0%25 mkts
  3. 3Whale Flow Agent52.0%25 mkts
  4. 4OI/Funding Agent44.0%25 mkts
  5. 5Mean Reversion Agent52.0%25 mkts
  6. 6Momentum Agent44.0%25 mkts

About this market

Hyperliquid · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology