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PROBORA

Market record

HYPE Up or Down · 5 Min

03:45 → 03:50 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled03:45 → 03:50 UTC

Market ID hype-5m-20261115-0345

Settled

Nov 15, 03:50:00 UTC

Price to beat

$66.193
Index at 03:45:00

Final index

$66.289

Settlement price

$66.289
Index at 03:50:00

Outcome

UP
Immutable record
66.27566.36666.45803:4503:4603:4703:4803:50PTB 66.193

Settlement $66.289

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
DOWN60.4%High
UP 39.6%60.4% DOWN
Historical accuracy
42.3%
26 markets
Model version
meta-hype5-v1
published 03:45:05 UTC

Base consensus

6 / 9 DOWN

66.7% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 03:45:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN54.0%
UP 46.0%54.0% DOWN
Medium42.3%26 marketsLOSS
Momentum AgentDOWN50.5%
UP 49.5%50.5% DOWN
Medium46.2%26 marketsLOSS
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN51.7%
UP 48.3%51.7% DOWN
Medium53.8%26 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN53.5%
UP 46.5%53.5% DOWN
Medium46.2%26 marketsLOSS
Order Flow AgentUP50.5%
UP 50.5%49.5% DOWN
Low65.4%26 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentDOWN58.0%
UP 42.0%58.0% DOWN
Medium38.5%26 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentUP50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low57.7%26 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentUP50.1%
UP 50.1%49.9% DOWN
Low46.2%26 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentDOWN50.6%
UP 49.4%50.6% DOWN
Low53.8%26 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for HYPE: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 03:45:00 UTC

03:45:00 UTC
  • BybitUSDT→USD+0.4 bps66.195ok
  • Hyperliquid0.0 bps66.193ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.3 bps66.190ok
Median of 3 sources$66.193

Settlement · 03:50:00 UTC

03:50:00 UTC
  • BybitUSDT→USD−0.5 bps66.285ok
  • Hyperliquid0.0 bps66.289ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+0.9 bps66.294ok
Median of 3 sources$66.289

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min HYPE windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
03:40 → 03:45Nov 1565.93966.193UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.8%LOSS
03:35 → 03:40Nov 1565.87465.939UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.1%LOSS
03:30 → 03:35Nov 1566.09565.874DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.6%WIN
03:25 → 03:30Nov 1566.31366.095DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN63.3%WIN
03:20 → 03:25Nov 1566.47966.313DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN68.6%WIN
03:15 → 03:20Nov 1566.26066.479UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN68.9%LOSS
03:10 → 03:15Nov 1566.21866.260UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN67.5%LOSS
03:05 → 03:10Nov 1566.14766.218UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN63.6%LOSS
03:00 → 03:05Nov 1566.09666.147UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN71.3%LOSS
02:55 → 03:00Nov 1566.05966.096UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN67.5%LOSS
02:50 → 02:55Nov 1565.79566.059UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN66.0%LOSS
02:45 → 02:50Nov 1565.97065.795DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN68.5%WIN

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on HYPE · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · HYPE 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Order Flow Agent65.4%26 mkts
  2. 2Liquidation Agent57.7%26 mkts
  3. 3Whale Flow Agent53.8%26 mkts
  4. 4OI/Funding Agent46.2%26 mkts
  5. 5Mean Reversion Agent53.8%26 mkts
  6. 6Momentum Agent46.2%26 mkts

About this market

Hyperliquid · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology