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PROBORA

Market record

HYPE Up or Down · 5 Min

08:35 → 08:40 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled08:35 → 08:40 UTC

Market ID hype-5m-20261115-0835

Settled

Nov 15, 08:40:00 UTC

Price to beat

$65.384
Index at 08:35:00

Final index

$65.210

Settlement price

$65.210
Index at 08:40:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
65.18665.25065.31308:3508:3608:3708:3808:40PTB 65.384

Settlement $65.210

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN64.2%High
UP 35.8%64.2% DOWN
Historical accuracy
50.4%
123 markets
Model version
meta-hype5-v1
published 08:35:04 UTC

Base consensus

6 / 9 DOWN

66.7% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 08:35:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN59.6%
UP 40.4%59.6% DOWN
Medium48.8%123 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN57.8%
UP 42.2%57.8% DOWN
Medium56.9%123 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN55.9%
UP 44.1%55.9% DOWN
Medium52.0%123 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN55.3%
UP 44.7%55.3% DOWN
Medium48.8%123 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentUP50.1%
UP 50.1%49.9% DOWN
Low53.7%123 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentDOWN54.3%
UP 45.7%54.3% DOWN
Medium48.0%123 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentUP50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low48.0%123 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.3%
UP 49.7%50.3% DOWN
Low47.2%123 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentUP51.1%
UP 51.1%48.9% DOWN
Low49.6%123 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for HYPE: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 08:35:00 UTC

08:35:00 UTC
  • BybitUSDT→USD0.0 bps65.384ok
  • Hyperliquid+4.4 bps65.413ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.5 bps65.381ok
Median of 3 sources$65.384

Settlement · 08:40:00 UTC

08:40:00 UTC
  • BybitUSDT→USD+0.6 bps65.214ok
  • Hyperliquid0.0 bps65.210ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.4 bps65.207ok
Median of 3 sources$65.210

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min HYPE windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
08:30 → 08:35Nov 1565.39565.384DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.2%WIN
08:25 → 08:30Nov 1565.07065.395UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN50.4%LOSS
08:20 → 08:25Nov 1564.69165.070UP5 / 9 UPDOWN51.3%LOSS
08:15 → 08:20Nov 1564.75764.691DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.7%WIN
08:10 → 08:15Nov 1564.99964.757DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.4%WIN
08:05 → 08:10Nov 1564.96064.999UP8 / 9 DOWNUP50.7%WIN
08:00 → 08:05Nov 1564.93664.960UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.9%LOSS
07:55 → 08:00Nov 1564.83164.936UP5 / 9 DOWNUP56.0%WIN
07:50 → 07:55Nov 1564.70564.831UP5 / 9 DOWNUP55.4%WIN
07:45 → 07:50Nov 1564.76364.705DOWN5 / 9 DOWNUP50.7%LOSS
07:40 → 07:45Nov 1565.12564.763DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.2%WIN
07:35 → 07:40Nov 1565.31765.125DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.7%WIN

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on HYPE · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · HYPE 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Momentum Agent56.9%123 mkts
  2. 2Order Flow Agent53.7%123 mkts
  3. 3Whale Flow Agent49.6%123 mkts
  4. 4Liquidation Agent48.0%123 mkts
  5. 5OI/Funding Agent47.2%123 mkts
  6. 6Mean Reversion Agent52.0%123 mkts

About this market

Hyperliquid · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology